The Bucks seem to have a home court advantage problem.

In the critically acclaimed 2011 book "Scorecasting," which examined the forces that influence how sports are played and games are won or lost, University of Chicago behavioral economist Tobias Moskowitz and Sports Illustrated writer L. Jon Wertheim found that, in all of the major sports, officials’ bias was the most significant contributor to a home advantage. 

Anecdotally, "home cooking" is fairly well-established and accepted. But Moskowitz and Wertheim delved into the data using original and previously recorded research to draw out their conclusion.

In the NBA specifically, the authors discovered, home teams shoot more free throws than away teams – between 1.0 and 1.5 more per game – because, simply stated, away teams are called for more fouls. "Referee bias," they wrote in summarizing their extensive report, "could well be the main reason for home court advantage in basketball."

Well, except in Milwaukee.

I looked back at figures from the past decade and found that not only have the Bucks shot fewer free throws per game at home than their opponent in every one of the past 10 years, but also they’ve been called for more fouls at the BMO Harris Bradley Center than the visiting team in seven of those seasons.

According to the in-depth statistics at TeamRankings.com, an independent sports predictions and data website, the Bucks have averaged three fewer free-throw attempts per game at home than their opponents from 2005-06 through 2014-15. Last year, they averaged 5.4 fewer free throws a contest.

In addition, over the past decade, they averaged 0.6 more personal fouls per game at the Bradley Center than the visitors. That may not seem like a lot, but most years, 0.6 fouls per game represents a difference of about five spots in the overall NBA rankings, which, stretched over the course of a season, becomes significant.

Not only are the Bucks not shooting between 1.0 and 1.5 more free throws per game, despite the alleged officials’ bias documented by Moskowitz and Wertheim, but also they’re shooting, on average, 3.0 less per game. That would indicate a major disadvantage, relative to the findings in "Scorecasting." And they’re committing more personal fouls a game, too.

I didn’t include this season's numbers, since Milwaukee has only played 18 games, but the trends continue. The Bucks – who commit the second-most home fouls per game at 22.3, compared to just 18.4 fouls called per game on their opponents – are averaging 3.2 fewer free throws a game than the visitors.

Why?

So what’s the deal? Why is there apparently a home court disadvantage for the Bucks, at least as it pertains to officials’ bias, personal fouls and free throws?

Could it be the low-key, easygoing-Midwestern atmosphere of Milwaukee and the often sparse crowd at the Bradley Center (the Bucks are regularly in the bottom-third of the league in attendance)? Could it be a manifestation of mostly losing basketball over the past decade? Could it be, at least in the last couple of years, the result of young squads playing an aggressive defensive system?

Probably a little of all the above and more.

Coach Jason Kidd said he doesn’t think there’s a correlation between the crowd or market size and the officials' decisions. "It’s got nothing to do with where you live; it’s about competing," he said. "The referees call a foul when they see it."

Khris Middleton didn’t want to talk about whether a crowd can influence a ref to blow or swallow the whistle, neither confirming nor denying the premise. "I don’t think I want to get into that," the fourth-year shooting guard said. "You’re talking about officiating and stuff like that, it’s a sticky situation."

Last year, the team was 27th out of 30 NBA teams in fouls per game, but the defense was the league’s second-most-efficient, allowing 99.3 points per 100 possessions. This year, the risk-taking, passing-lane-jumping defensive scheme has stayed the same, and Milwaukee is 29th in fouls per game, but its defensive efficiency has dropped all the way down to No. 28 (107.3).

If you ask some of the Bucks, they’ll say the fouls are a product of playing sloppy and stupid.

"We’ve just got to be smarter, stop using our hands, be in the right position," Middleton said.

Kidd joked that at least the Bucks were "consistent" in being near the bottom of the league’s rankings in both of his seasons in fouls per game.

"When you look at the fouls, we’re in the same place we were last year, until we started to figure out not fouling late in the clock," he said. "We have a couple players who are getting in foul trouble early, and sometimes that is youth and understanding what a foul means and what it leads to.

"As a coach, we don’t want silly fouls. There’s going to be times you pick up a foul, and understanding how to play with two fouls, how to play with three fouls, we have to go through that process."

Giannis Antetokounmpo has struggled with toeing that line, ranking third in the league in personal fouls per game at 3.8. He was first entering Monday’s game against the Nuggets, when he picked up three fouls in the first 11 minutes, but he was able to avoid getting another for the remainder of the game.

Said reserve big man Johnny O’Bryant, "I think for the most part it’s just aggression, which is a good thing – you always want a team to be aggressive on defense. I just think it comes from being into the ball and trying to do the defensive scheme. Definitely, you try to clean up the silly fouls that cause one of your good players to have to sit on the bench.

Fourth-year big man John Henson said the Bucks employ an aggressive style of defense and just hope the refs let them mostly play their game – like offensive linemen knowing NFL officials won't call holding on every snap.

"It’s hard, man. I think you set a precedent with the style of play," he said. "Last year we did that, being in the passing lanes, gambling – not necessarily gambling bad, but deflections, steals and stuff – and you always say (referees) can’t call everything a foul, so that’s kind of our philosophy.

"This year our defense hasn’t translated, but I think it’s getting there."

Could the Bucks risk losing their swarming and intense defensive identity if they tried to totally tone down the fouling?

"Yeah you do (risk it), you do," Henson said. "But at the end of the day, you can play defense without fouling, it’s just a mindset, and we’ve got to get better at it."

They’d better get better at it soon because, for the past decade and again this season, the Bucks have lacked one of sports’ most basic elements of home court advantage.