Own the future. It’s a trendy marketing slogan the Milwaukee Bucks have been using recently, with the franchise asking fans to think long-term.
It’s one thing to say it. It’s an entirely different situation when the actual roster reflects that vision in a way that no other NBA team can match.
When ESPN used projection analysis data (specifically, a three-year Wins Above Replacement projection), it found that the Bucks have the league’s best young core of players. No, not just top 10. Not settling for top five. The best. The No. 1 group.
The criteria was set by including any player who will be younger than 26 years old when the 2015-16 NBA season tips off. For Milwaukee, each of their top six players meets that description.
Starting forwards Giannis Antetokounmpo and Jabari Parker are both 20. The starting backcourt of Khris Middleton and Michael Carter-Williams will turn 24 before opening night. Starting center Greg Monroe is 25, and reserve big man John Henson is 24. Digging deeper in the roster, backups Tyler Ennis (20), Damien Inglis (20) and first-round pick Rashad Vaughn (19) could all evolve into key pieces, too.
ESPN projected the Bucks’ top-six young players as producing 92.5 wins above replacement (WAR) between now and the conclusion of the 2017-18 season. That’s more than the Anthony Davis-led New Orleans Pelicans, as well the promising rosters in Utah (which includes center Rudy Gobert and point guard Dante Exum), Boston (with point guard Marcus Smart and big man Jared Sullinger), Philadelphia (with big men Jahlil Okafor and Nerlens Noel) and Portland (with superstar point guard Damian Lillard).
Admittedly, the ESPN ranking states that it shows slight bias towards players with more NBA experience. That would help the projection for a player like Monroe, who’s been playing consistently strong basketball for five seasons. But it would logically then work against Jabari Parker, who’s only 25 games into his professional career and contributed a minus-0.93 WAR as a rookie.
Projections don’t always equate to reality. However, this is the best evidence so far that there is a very bright future on the court in Milwaukee.
It should also be encouraging to Bucks fans that the team’s front office has laid out a solid financial structure by which to retain all of these main players down the road. Of course, it’s certainly helpful that the NBA’s salary cap is set to grow exponentially. This upcoming season, it’s set at $70 million. By next season, it’s likely to be around $89 million. By the end of this three-year WAR projection, the league expects to have a $108 million salary cap.
Therefore, while Middleton’s $14 million annual salary might seem like a lot now, it will account for less than 13 percent of Milwaukee’s cap by the 2017-18 season. Recent reports have mentioned a forthcoming contract extension for Henson. If Henson truly is a part of the Milwaukee’s core in the minds of general manager John Hammond and head coach Jason Kidd, it would be prudent for the Bucks to re-sign him before the cap escalates.
In the event a Henson extension kicks in for the 2016-17 season at $12 million per year, fans need not fear about any ramifications regarding the futures of Antetokounmpo or Parker in Milwaukee. Making those two young building blocks the central focus of the future is obviously the franchise’s top priority. Without getting too complex in NBA cap rules and mathematics, the Bucks will be able to re-sign both of them due to having their Bird Rights – which allows a team to exceed the salary cap to retain their own free agents. The same rule applies towards Carter-Williams, should Milwaukee decide in two years to ink him to a long-term extension.
Turning projection into on-court production over the next three years is critical. Monroe has yet to wear a Bucks jersey, with the exception of a few promotional photo shoots. How he fits in could ultimately sway the team in one direction or the other. It stands to reason that giving the lane to Monroe (rather than asking him to share it with center Andre Drummond, as he had to do with the Detroit Pistons) will bring out the best in him. It should also bring out the best in those around him on the floor, given that Monroe is a post-up threat who’s capable of kicking the ball out to open teammates.
To fully maximize that ability, though, Milwaukee needs more than just Middleton to make perimeter shots. Carter-Williams, Antetokounmpo and Parker all need to improve their long-range shooting. Between the three of them, they made 15 of 88 shots from three-point range (17 percent) last season. The shooting development of Carter-Williams, Antetokounmpo and Parker could arguably be the difference between the Bucks reaching their full potential over the next three seasons or falling well short of it.
Still, how far Milwaukee’s roster has come in two years is something that every non-championship-contending team wishes they could orchestrate. Many of those teams, such as Orlando, Philadelphia, Boston and Utah, have implemented a similar rebuilding strategy as the Bucks. Yet, it’s Milwaukee that has emerged atop the pile.
Own the future has become more than a hashtag for the Bucks. The ESPN projections validate everything that Hammond and Kidd have said about their efforts to build a true championship-caliber team in Milwaukee.
