If early-season performances are any indication, the 2002-'03 Milwaukee Bucks seem to resemble the 2000-'01 version more so than last year's gang.

Winning three of their last four games, the Bucks quickly overcame a rocky 0-2 start that saw them dominated on the backboards in Philadelphia and blown out in their home opener against rival Orlando. Coming off a bad summer for both the team and George Karl, it was easy to assume the worst about the team's prospects in the least amount of time.

But the struggling New York Knicks helped the Bucks get their first victory of the season, and solid efforts against the Nets and Sixers bracketing a close loss in Minnesota worked to restore the team's sometimes fragile pysche.

Unlike last year, the Bucks' best basketball appears to be ahead of them. After 10 games a year ago, the Bucks were an impressive but shaky 9-1, yet they were still considered the team to beat in the Eastern Conference. Today, they're rarely even mentioned as a contender despite maintaining two-thirds of the Big Three, an emerging Michael Redd and the same offensive tendencies that stamped them as the East's pre- and early-season favorite last year.

The low profile is probably for the best, and also deserved. While Milwaukee is still a formidable club, Glenn Robinson's trade makes the Bucks less likely to accomplish a 2001 postseason run. The Bucks retain most of that team's familiar problems -- the lack of a "true" center", untimely defensive lapses and an over-reliance on that notoroiously fickle stat, three-point shooting percentage -- and they also lack Robinson's 20 points per and are still trying to figure out where Anthony Mason fits into the grand scheme of things.

But they're a step ahead of last year, as well. The infamous March-April meltdown is now behind them rather than looming, and the tough lessons of falling from first in the Central Division to ninth in the East in a month's time have theoretically been learned. Redd is a year better, Tim Thomas now has no doubts about his role and Toni Kukoc combines with Mason to provide veteran elements beyond scoring that winners usually possess. {INSERT_RELATED}

Unfortunately, the East is improved, though most national basketball writers still point confidently to the talent disparity between the conferences. Perhaps, but Tracy McGrady and Grant Hill look extremely formidable in Orlando; New Jersey has a well-rounded lineup, not to mention Jason Kidd for at least one more year; New Orleans is healthy and dangerous, if not the certain Central favorite they are currently designated as; and Indiana has a Western Conference feel with loads of young, big and raw talent. None of this mentions the Sixers, Detroit or even Boston, all playoff-caliber teams who maintain their own conference title aspirations.

Counting the Bucks, that's eight distinguished clubs in the East, and Toronto and Washington are also planning on postseason berths. Perhaps the best of the best teams do indeed reside west of the Mississippi, but the East should no longer be completely considered the gawky, younger sibling to the handsome, polished West.

Milwaukee should have another fight on its hands to make the playoffs, and 50 wins are probably a bit much to expect. Internecine wars in the East make 45 more probable, but if Karl can get accelerated development from rookie Dan Gadzuric and continued solid floor play from Kukoc, that number is certainly beatable.

Sweaty palms and rapid heartbeats will accompany the effort, as most games are likely to mirror the first half-dozen's drama. Similar to the NFL, the NBA's extremes have scrunched down toward the mean, save healthy units out in Sacramento and Los Angeles. Only a handful of clubs can be earmarked as certain wins -- and probably only at home -- while even fewer are dreaded as definite losses.

Today, even the dregs of the league seem to have two would-be stars: Miami has Eddie Jones and Caron Butler, Memphis boasts Pau Gasol and Drew Gooden, Golden State has Antawn Jamison and Jason Richardson and Denver has ... OK, perhaps not Denver.

The Bucks? Ray Allen and Sam Cassell count for two, and maybe Thomas and Redd give them another half.

In many ways, the Bucks are back to where they started three years ago, when they were coming off the five-game, first-round loss to eventual Eastern champs Indiana -- trying to prove themselves in a league highlighting different teams and different players. Expect them to have moderate, if not tremendous, success along the way.