{image1}On May 24, everything changed for the Milwaukee Bucks.

Early that morning, the Bucks were simply a 30-52 team staring at an early to mid-lottery pick in a very so-so draft. Their prize point guard hadn't played in over a year, their head coach was just happy to have a job and their best player was thinking about moving from Lake Michigan to Lake Erie.

Then, the lottery happened.

It's been one thing after another since then for general manager Larry Harris and the Bucks, most of them positive and all of them noteworthy for a franchise that has been as moribund as President Bush's Social Security plan. In fact, the only thing more boring than attending a Bucks game last year was reading about one.

But that was all PB, or Pre-Bogut. Defining an era with a rookie's name doesn't mean he'll be the next Kareem; it simply means that a lot has happened since May 24, the day that made his arrival possible. Thank goodness for that unwitting ping-pong ball in Secaucus, N.J.

To recap: The Bucks win the lottery. Harris stages a month-long public relations event dithering over Bogut or Marvin Williams (was there ever a doubt, in retrospect?). As that's happening, he reneges on his proclamation that Terry Porter will coach the team for a third year, leaving the franchise without a coach on Draft night. Bogut is drafted. Free agency opens. Michael Redd announces he's re-signing. Most Improved Player Bobby Simmons announces he's leaving the Clippers for the Bucks. Terry Stotts becomes the new head coach. And, finally, T.J. Ford returns to practice.

How is Bogut responsible for all that? First, Porter probably doesn't get fired if the Bucks don't win the lottery. Without a big-ticket pick, Porter would have been as good as anyone else to steward the Bucks through another rebuilding year. Second, if Bogut isn't drafted, does Redd re-sign? Perhaps, but the chances with Bogut were much better than without him. Third, does Simmons join the Bucks if Redd and Bogut aren't on board? Again, it's possible but far less likely. Stotts' hiring became possible, of course, only because of Porter's firing. The only major off-season move that wasn't somehow tied to May 24 was Ford's return.

That's a lot to pack into a month and a half. Does it all add up to a playoff berth next year?

I'll go on the record and say yes. The Bucks will make the playoffs next year.

Lest you think I'm getting ahead of myself, remember that it's really not that difficult to make the playoffs in the NBA. Had the Bucks won just 42 games last season, they would have tied for the eighth and final playoff spot in the East. And they were able to reach the postseason in 2003-2004 with only a 41-41 record.

On the other hand, Bogut isn't likely to have the type of immediate impact that Tim Duncan or Larry Bird did in their maiden NBA seasons. He should be a very good NBA player, but the young center probably won't be a major difference-maker out of the gates. Not only is Bogut still 20-years old, he also played just two years of NCAA basketball at Utah.

Instead, a healthy Ford will be key to the Bucks' immediate fortunes. When Ford was injured in February 2004, the Bucks were heading toward a possible top four finish in the Eastern Conference. They stumbled down the stretch without him and followed that with a forgettable season in 2005.

If Ford is back running the point, the Bucks could have the most improved offense in basketball. Simmons and Desmond Mason are both offensive-minded small forwards, and Redd is one of the league's best shooters. Joe Smith will earn far more favorable matchups with Bogut playing center, and Dan Gadzuric should flourish off the bench, a perfect role for his energy and skills. Even Zaza Pachulia and newcomer Jiri Welsch will chip in, not to mention displaced point Maurice Williams and possibly Toni Kukoc.

Without a fully functioning Ford, however, the Bucks are a better team but not a playoff one. To pick just one issue, will the defense be any better? Maybe so, maybe not. Bogut brings an interior presence, but he isn't an accomplished shot-blocker just yet. Mason, Redd and Simmons are all offensive-minded. The only notable defender on the team is Gadzuric, the backup center.

But sometimes a great offense is the best defense. And with Ford, the Bucks should be one of the league's better scoring teams. While the Bucks probably won't become the Phoenix Suns overnight, Ford's return -- and everything else that's happened since May 24 -- give Milwaukee hope for 2005-'06.