The Milwaukee Bucks tipoff one of the biggest seasons in franchise history on Wednesday in Charlotte before returning to town for the home opener on Friday night against Indiana. Here are 34 questions and answers to ponder before the games officially begin.
1. Will the Bucks earn home-court advantage in the playoffs?
Yes. Boston, Toronto and Philadelphia are all expected to finish in the top-three in some order, which leaves Milwaukee battling with Indiana, Washington and Miami for the fourth seed. Indiana has added complementary pieces and Washington has reshuffled the deck for the umpteenth season, but the upgrade from the Jason Kidd/Joe Prunty duo to Mike Budenholzer should be one of the most impactful moves in the East.
2. Could the Bucks grab the top seed in the Eastern Conference?
Highly unlikely. The Celtics are already the clear favorite in the East, and with excellent coaching and a deep arsenal of young perimeter talent, even one major injury likely won’t derail their season. Toronto is also in contention for the top seed after subbing out DeMar DeRozan for Kawhi Leonard, and Philly is a threat to make the leap behind the maturation of their two young stars.
3. Over/under 48.5 wins this year?
Over, but barely. The Bucks limped to a 44-38 record last year, so while a 50-win season isn’t too audacious, it would still be the franchise’s best mark since 2000-01. Here’s betting on prime Giannis, quality coaching and a weak conference propelling Milwaukee over 48.5 victories.
4. Who will make the playoffs in the Eastern Conference?
In order: Toronto, Boston, Philadelphia, Milwaukee, Washington, Indiana, Miami and Detroit
5. Does Giannis Antetokounmpo have another gear?
Yes. Giannis has rapidly improved his game each season, as evidenced by his yearly player efficiency ratings (PER). After posting a 10.8 PER as a rookie (league average is 15), Antetokoumpo elevated his PER to 14.8, 18.8, 26.1, and then 27.3 in 2017-18. If he can tighten his handle or improve his jumper, then the 23-year-old will move one step closer to joining a list of all-timers. Only 10 players in NBA history have ever cracked a PER of 30 in a season.
6. Is Giannis a top-five player in the NBA?
No. LeBron James, Kevin Durant, Steph Curry and James Harden are firmly entrenched as the top four players in the league, combining to win eight of the last 10 MVP awards. The next tier, which includes Anthony Davis, Leonard, Russell Westbrook and Antetokounmpo, gets a little messier. Antetokounmpo is probably ahead of Westbrook, but Leonard’s unrivaled two-way excellence when healthy and Davis’ 2018 postseason performance give them the nod over the Bucks’ budding superstar. But in the 2020s, when the other elite players age out of the top spots, Antetokounmpo and Davis should be primed to take over the NBA.
7. Will Giannis win the 2018-19 MVP?
No. He certainly has the narrative to win the award if the Bucks top 50 wins – plus everyone loves Giannis. But as someone who is high on both the new-look Lakers and revamped Raptors, I think either James or Leonard will swoop in and win the award. Still, Giannis will certainly be in the conversation and should take home the hardware soon enough.
8. Will Donte DiVincenzo prove any better than other recent first-rounders?
Yes. It’s a low bar. The Bucks have had the 17th pick in the three of the last four drafts. The first two selections in that slot – Rashad Vaughn and DJ Wilson – have averaged just 2.8 points per game. DiVincenzo struggled with his jumper during the preseason, but he has at least displayed some other playmaking skills that will have value.
9. Will DJ Wilson contribute in 2018-19?
No. Last season was a lost season for Wilson as he shuttled between Milwaukee and Oshkosh, only cracking double-digit minutes twice with the Bucks and not once after the calendar flipped to December. Wilson, 22, simply needs to prove he can stick to an NBA bench for a full season before evaluating his place in the rotation.
10. Are the basketball draft gods evening the scales after the gift of Giannis?
Seems like it. From 2014-17, the Bucks selected four first-rounders; so far, those players have totaled just 9,120 minutes in 10 combined seasons. Jabari Parker’s injury troubles play into those disappointing numbers somewhat, but the front office has been on a catastrophic string of misses since stealing Giannis in the middle of the first round in 2013. If the DiVincenzo pick doesn’t hit, that will make five consecutive top-17 selections that result in zero long-term starters.
11. Will Thon Maker do anything in the regular season?
Who knows! For his career, Maker is averaging 13.7 minutes, 4.4 points and 0.6 blocks per game in the regular season and 20.5 minutes, 5.7 points and 2.3 blocks per game in the postseason. I understand he provides matchup advantages in the playoffs that don’t necessarily exist earlier in the year, but it’s high time we see more of Thon’s April flashes during the other five months of the year.
12. Can Mike Budenholzer fix the defense?
1,000 percent yes. In Budenholzer’s first four seasons with Atlanta, these were the Hawks’ finishes in defensive efficiency: 14th, 7th, 2nd and 4th. Atlanta slipped to 21st last season, but that was only after the Hawks sold off nearly every core player from the previous era to start a rebuild.
Here is how the Bucks ranked in defensive efficiency during the Jason Kidd/Joe Prunty tenure: 2nd, 22nd, 17th and 17th. Milwaukee took the league by storm in Kidd’s first campaign with an aggressive, blitzing scheme, but the NBA eventually solved that riddle and the Bucks failed to adjust until it was too late. Budenholzer should be able to replicate his Atlanta success with a Bucks roster that is stocked with players who are theoretically capable of solid defense.
13. Will Budenholzer elevate the offense?
Once again, affirmative. Three-pointers and pace were staples of Budenholzer’s offense, particularly during Atlanta’s 60-win campaign in 2014-15. On the flip side, Milwaukee has not finished higher than 20th in pace in the last three seasons, which is absolutely inexcusable for a team with one of the most athletically gifted players in basketball history. During the preseason, the Bucks averaged over 40 three-point attempts per game, which would have ranked second in the league last season.
14. Khris Middleton: overvalued, undervalued or properly valued?
Undervalued by the sports world at large, but overvalued by the NBA sabermetric community. Middleton did impress by averaging 24.7 points per game and knocking down 25 of his 41 three-point attempts in the Boston series last year. That kind of performance over a full season would go a long way for both his bank account and the Bucks’ playoff aspirations.
15. Could the Bucks make any major midseason upgrades?
Unlikely. The Bucks are already butting up against the cap and have few tradable assets on the roster. Former Marquette star and current Timberwolves forward Jimmy Butler seems like a good bet to get traded at some point, but Milwaukee does not have the young players nor the impactful draft picks to get such a deal done.
16. Does a Middleton-for-Butler trade make sense?
Kind of. It’s an intriguing trade possibility, as both players will likely hit free agency next summer. The Bucks would have a better chance of inking Middleton to a long-term deal than Butler, but in this hypothetical scenario, a Butler-Giannis combo gives the Bucks more than just a puncher’s chance to crash the Finals in 2018-19, and it would also allow them to reset their messy cap situation after the season if they let Butler walk in free agency. Right now, the Bucks are looking at extending Middleton on a pricey deal and locking in a solid core that is still well short of several other championship-caliber teams.
17. Who is the third-best player on the team?
Uh, whomever Budenholzer picks out of a hat that night? It’s probably Eric Bledsoe, but his inconsistency in big spots is infuriating to watch.
18. Is Bledsoe one of the top-15 point guards in the NBA?
Probably not. At first blush, it seems like an obvious yes, but there are 11 point guards who are decidedly better: Curry, Westbrook, Chris Paul, Kyrie Irving, Damian Lillard, John Wall, Ben Simmons, Kyle Lowry, Mike Conley, Jrue Holiday and Kemba Walker. Bledsoe exists in the middle of the PG pack along with Goran Dragic, Jeff Teague and Ricky Rubio. Is he better than those other three? After Boston backup Terry Rozier repeatedly torched Bledsoe during last year’s playoffs, it’s hard to give him the edge. With plenty of other young players filling the point guard pipeline as well, the Bucks may have sacrificed a future first round pick for a below average player at his own position.
19. What will the starting lineup look like?
Bledsoe, Brogdon, Middleton, Antetokounmpo and Brook Lopez
20. Wow, why do the Bucks have so much invested in their bench?
Currently, there are four players on the Bucks’ bench earning between $7 million and $10.6 million this year, as well as three other former first round picks on rookie deals. An optimist might say they have so many quality players that they can’t squeeze them all into the starting lineup. I say the Bucks have missed their opportunity for greatness by handing fatty, long-term contracts to role players and striking out several times in the draft.
21. Is Malcolm Brogdon a critical piece going forward?
No. Brogdon is useful, but he is not a building block for the future. Opponents outscored the Bucks by 1.3 points per 100 possessions when Brogdon was on the court last year; those numbers became even more exaggerated in the postseason when Milwaukee was nearly 15 points worse with Brogdon than without him.
22. Does Brook Lopez have any juice left?
Sure. It seems like the 7-foot former All-Star has been around forever, but he doesn’t turn 31 until the end of this season. Over the past two years, Lopez has shot 35 percent on nearly five threes per game, so he fits as a perfect spacing complement next to Antetokounmpo. Lopez has never been an elite rebounder or shot-blocker on the other end of the floor, but he at least knows where to be and should bring some much-needed reliability to the Bucks’ frontcourt.
23. Tony Snell: yay or nay?
Yay! I’m a Snell believer. He is a long, capable defender who is in the prime of his career. Plus, he can actually shoot. I know it feels like he always misses the big shots in the biggest moments (which is true – he only shot 28 percent on threes in the fourth quarter and overtime last year), but he is still a career 38 percent shooter from deep who has topped 40 percent each of the past two seasons in Milwaukee. With Kidd gone and Budenholzer in, hopefully Snell feels more at ease on the court in a new system. Let it fly, Tony!
24. Will John Henson actually shoot three-pointers this season?
Probably not. The three-point bug has even swept over Henson during the offseason. Yes, the same Henson who is just 6-37 from deep in the nine years since he was a freshman at North Carolina. The 6-foot-11 big man did shoot five treys in four preseason games, making one, but its hard to imagine any defense will actually stretch out to the perimeter to guard him unless he proves to be a knockdown option for long stretches of the season.
25. Are the Bucks going to miss Jabari Parker?
The City of Milwaukee will miss him, as Parker was an incredible advocate and partner for many community outreach groups. On the court though, the Bucks will be fine. Ersan Ilyasova is not as talented as Parker, but he knows his role as a floor-spacing power forward.
26. Will Ilyasova’s stint go better than the first?
Yes, because it can’t be much worse. In Ersan’s seven seasons in the Brew City, the Bucks only finished above .500 one time. The Turkish Thunder was always a steady performer for Milwaukee, but he was miscast as a frequent starter. Since leaving town after the 2014-15 campaign, he has appeared in the postseason four times with Detroit, Oklahoma City, Atlanta and Philadelphia. Ilyasova has been around for over a decade, yet he doesn’t turn 32 until the spring, and he will provide some veteran leadership and front-court consistency for a Bucks team desperate to get over the hump.
27. Is Bango the best mascot in the NBA?
28. Can Matthew Dellavedova prop up bench units?
Not so much. Delly was a fan favorite in Cleveland, known for his hustle and grit playing next to LeBron James, but he has largely disappointed in Milwaukee, shooting just 38 percent in 114 games. Barring a miraculous turnaround, the Bucks should cut ties after the (cue record scratch) wait, Milwaukee has him under contract through 2019-20? Yikes.
29. Pat Connaughton is ... ?
A potential steal! The 25-year-old Notre Dame product is only taking up 1.4 percent of Milwaukee’s cap this year after signing a $1.6 million deal this offseason, but he should have a value as a shooter off the bench. Portland was 1.9 points better with him on the floor last year.
30. Will Sterling Brown take a step forward as a 3-and-D weapon?
Yes. Brown should be more comfortable offensively with another offseason under his belt, and with his impressive wingspan giving him enough size to guard across the perimeter, he will find a niche on Budenholzer’s bench.
31. Will Fiserv Forum have any impact?
Yes. The arena is now one of the sparkling gems in the NBA and will be a big draw for fans in the area. Nightly attendance should increase even though the Fiserv Forum seats fewer fans than the BMO Harris Bradley Center, meaning the atmosphere for random Wednesday games in December will have a little more energy than before. If the Milwaukee faithful affects just one or two games this season, the playoff standings could tilt ever so slightly in the Bucks’ favor.
32. What are the five biggest home games on the schedule?
- Friday, Oct. 19 vs. Indiana: the home opener
- Friday, Dec. 7 vs. Golden State: the defending champs
- Thursday, Feb. 21 vs. Boston: the East favorites
- Tuesday, March 19 vs. Los Angeles Lakers: The King comes to town
- Tuesday, March 26 vs. Houston: 2017-18 MVP vs. 2018-19 MVP?
33. Has Wisconsin pro sports ever looked this good?
Not for a long time. The 1982 campaign may have been the best year for Bucks, Brewers and Packers fans, as the Crew went to the World Series and the Bucks and Packers both won a playoff round. (This includes the Bucks’ 1982-83 season.) That was the only time in history that all three franchises advanced past the first round of their respective postseasons in the same year.
34. What qualifies as a successful season in 2018-19?
Win a playoff series and at least compete in another. It’s tempting to think bigger with a star like Antetokounmpo, but this franchise still needs to climb the ladder incrementally. If the Bucks can advance past the first round for the first time since 2001, Milwaukee will finally be headed in the right direction as the clock ticks on Antetokounmpo’s contract.
