What a difference a week makes.
Last Monday, as the regular season loomed, the Bucks were one of the NBA’s up-and-coming darlings, predicted by some to make a leap into the East’s top stratum and considered by most to be at least a .500 team with a stingy defense and a frisky offense that would contend again for a playoff spot in their watered-down conference.
Three games in, Milwaukee is winless with the league’s fourth-worst point differential and a shockingly bad defense.
But hark! There is hope. Three games do not a season make, and there are still plenty of reasons to believe the Bucks don’t have to lease the present in order to #OwnTheFuture.
There’s been some good, a bit of bad, too much ugly and lots we just don’t know. Let’s take a closer look at it all and then rationalize everything at the end.
The Good
Giannis is playing like a star
The team’s third-year phenom has turned his preternatural physical gifts into legitimate NBA production. Antetokounmpo, 20, missed the opener due to a residual suspension from last season’s playoffs, when he angrily decked the Bulls' Mike Dunleavy, Jr. into the stands. Now he’s channeling that aggressiveness into actual basketball, and the results are exciting. Averaging team highs of 23.5 points and 9.0 rebounds, Antetokounmpo’s become a high-usage (25.6) player through whom the Bucks’ offense runs. In transition and on drives, especially, his majestic movement and dynamic dunks have provided just about the only Bucks highlights. And that Tzatziki Scowl.
Monroe helps on offense
Milwaukee signed the free-agent center to give them scoring and a presence down low. Monroe has been more than just a last-resort bailout on offense, getting the ball as a first-choice option in the post and deftly facilitating sets up at the elbow. Averaging 19.3 points, 8.3 rebounds (3.7 on the offensive glass) and 4.0 assists per game, he’s been exactly what the Bucks wanted on offense. Monroe’s 3.0 assist-to-turnover ratio and 30.9 player efficiency rating are both tops on the team. He and Antetokounmpo have already boosted a better-than-expected offense.
Plumlee’s doing Plumlee things
By providing bouncy energy and playing strong defense, Plumlee is doing two things few other Bucks are doing. After getting just three minutes in the opener, he’s averaged 14 the past two games, running the floor, hustling for loose balls and finishing lobs. Per 36 minutes, Plumlee’s averaging a robust 4.6 offensive rebounds and an impressive 4.6 blocks. The 6-foot-11, 250-pounder has the heft to handle opposing bigs.
The season-opener was a spectacle
After last year’s surprising success, offseason upgrades and the new-arena achievement, there was a definite Bucks buzz around both the league and the city. The phantasmagoric pregame pyrotechnics in the opener were dazzling, and the capacity crowd created a raucous atmosphere early on. The Cream City Clash fan squad – formerly Sector 7 and Squad 6 – adds an entertaining element to games and pulled no punches heckling the Knicks.
The Bad
Point guards aren’t playmaking
The Bucks’ trio of point guards – Carter-Williams, Greivis Vasquez and Jerryd Bayless – haven’t been good distributors. Though they haven’t played strictly conventional roles at the position – sometimes sharing the floor, occasionally one playing off the ball – they haven’t been effective playmakers. Combined, they have an assist-to-turnover ratio of 1.6, and each has had a game with at least three giveaways (Carter-Williams has turned it over at least three times in all three games, including six against the Knicks). The Bucks, like most modern NBA teams, don’t run a traditional offense, and Monroe and Antetokounmpo certainly help as passers, but their offensive caretakers can’t torpedo possessions with sloppy ball-handling.
Middleton has struggled
The Bucks’ best offensive player the second half of last year, Middleton re-signed to a $70 million contract to be one of their core scorers, but he's gotten off to a bad start. After shooting 46.7 percent in 2014-15 (including 40.7 on 3s), he’s making just one-third of his shots this season. The subdued shooting guard called his slump "frustrating" but doesn’t seem concerned. When shots aren’t falling, good players find other ways to help their team win, but Middleton’s 1.0 assist-to-turnover ratio, 2.3 rebounds per game (too low for a 6-8 wing that averaged 4.4 last year) and helplessness against both Washington’s Bradley Beal and Toronto’s DeMar DeRozan (after mostly shutting down New York’s Carmelo Anthony) haven’t helped Milwaukee.
On-court energy is lacking
After the season opener, Bayless, Plumlee and others praised the arena’s liveliness but condemned the Bucks’ lackadaisical play. Empirically, the effort appeared delinquent again in the subsequent two games, and statistically the Bucks aren’t anywhere near where they were last year in terms of defensive hustle plays. After leading the league in opponent turnovers per game in 2014-15, they’re 17th so far this season.
Attendance on Friday was underwhelming
After drawing a sellout crowd for the opener, Milwaukee hosted the Wizards a couple days later at the BMO Harris Bradley Center. Despite playing on a Friday night against a good, young team they could be chasing for playoff position, the Bucks drew less than 14,000 fans, and there were noticeably empty parts of even the arena’s lower bowl. Despite the increasing hype surrounding the team, the Bucks still aren’t quite a nightly (weekend) marquee draw.
The Ugly
The defense has been dreadful
Milwaukee is dead last in the NBA in defensive efficiency (117.1), which calculates the points a team allows per 100 possessions, after finishing second in that category last year (99.3). It’s also last in the league in 3-point defense, allowing opponents to shoot 46.4 percent from beyond the arc, and tied for last in defensive rebounds per game, at 37.3. Considered an opportunistic group in 2014-15, the Bucks are 20th out of 30 teams in both steals and blocks. They’re giving up 115.3 points per game, which is 28th.
O’Bryant starting hasn’t worked well
Unsurprisingly, putting the team’s least-efficient player in 2014-15 (3.8 PER in 2014-15) into the starting lineup has not been a resounding success. Now in his second season, O’Bryant has barely upped his PER to 4.4 and has yet to show an NBA-caliber skill, shooting ill-advised midrange jumpers (27.3 field-goal percentage), defending sluggishly and possessing a reprehensible rebound rate of 7.5. After coming off the bench against the Knicks, he started against the Wizards and Raptors, and didn’t make an impact. Even with an injury-depleted frontcourt, the Bucks need much more from a starting forward.
Blowout runs in each game
In all three contests, the Bucks were close or even ahead until the opponent went on a big run to widen the margin. Against the Knicks, it came early, as New York went on a 15-0 run between the first and second quarters that blew the game open and deflated the crowd. Against the Wizards, it was a 13-2 run at the beginning of the fourth quarter when Washington when from being down 92-82 to up 95-94. And on Sunday, the Bucks shrunk the Raptors’ lead to six points with 10 minutes remaining but then let Toronto go on a 14-0 run to put the score out of reach.
The Unknown
Carter-Williams is shooting 3-pointers
Logic and statistics would indicate this is a bad thing; aesthetics say it’s an ugly one. And, yes, MCW is a career 25.3 percent 3-point shooter who’s at just 27.3 percent this year. But, somewhat counterintuitively, it’s important he takes the shots, especially when they’re open. Milwaukee needs its point guard to be considered at least a threat to fire from deep so that opposing defenses stay honest and can’t sag off him. Carter-Williams has taken 11 3s, tied for second-most on the team, and while he’s airballed a couple, the few he’s made have been encouraging.
Copeland’s contributions are unclear
At times, he looks like a good fit for the Bucks – a spot-up shooter capable of hitting 3-pointers and a long-armed defender who understands his responsibilities. But other times, Copeland appears to rotate late or miss his assignment on defense, and offensively, he’s slow and limited in the ways he can make an impact. Ideally, Copeland would replace departed veteran Jared Dudley, but the Bucks would be happy if he’s just a capable role player.
Injuries have hurt
We knew Jabari Parker and Tyler Ennis would be out early as they recovered from injuries. We didn’t expect O.J. Mayo and John Henson to miss significant time early on, which has thinned the bench and rendered what was a steady, strong second unit last year fickle and fairly impotent so far. Parker and Ennis are expected to return soon, but just as concerning are Mayo and Henson, who were being counted on for major minutes this season.
The Silver Lining
Being routed by the Knicks at home on opening night was definitely disappointing, but the ensuing two losses were against last year’s fourth and fifth Eastern Conference playoff seeds. Washington is a good litmus-test team for the Bucks, while playing the Raptors on the road is tough. The good news for Milwaukee is its next four games are against the Brooklyn Nets (twice), the Philadelphia 76ers and the Knicks again, all of whom are expected to be bottom-feeders. So this time next week, the Bucks could be above .500 and all the initial consternation forgotten.
Born in Milwaukee but a product of Shorewood High School (go ‘Hounds!) and Northwestern University (go ‘Cats!), Jimmy never knew the schoolboy bliss of cheering for a winning football, basketball or baseball team. So he ditched being a fan in order to cover sports professionally - occasionally objectively, always passionately. He's lived in Chicago, New York and Dallas, but now resides again in his beloved Brew City and is an ardent attacker of the notorious Milwaukee Inferiority Complex.
After interning at print publications like Birds and Blooms (official motto: "America's #1 backyard birding and gardening magazine!"), Sports Illustrated (unofficial motto: "Subscribe and save up to 90% off the cover price!") and The Dallas Morning News (a newspaper!), Jimmy worked for web outlets like CBSSports.com, where he was a Packers beat reporter, and FOX Sports Wisconsin, where he managed digital content. He's a proponent and frequent user of em dashes, parenthetical asides, descriptive appositives and, really, anything that makes his sentences longer and more needlessly complex.
Jimmy appreciates references to late '90s Brewers and Bucks players and is the curator of the unofficial John Jaha Hall of Fame. He also enjoys running, biking and soccer, but isn't too annoying about them. He writes about sports - both mainstream and unconventional - and non-sports, including history, music, food, art and even golf (just kidding!), and welcomes reader suggestions for off-the-beaten-path story ideas.