On Monday afternoon, the Milwaukee Brewers staved off the Chicago Cubs at Wrigley Field to clinch the organization’s second NL Central crown in team history and first since 2011. That victory also kept the Brewers out of the infamous Wild Card game, where the Rockies ultimately knocked off the North Siders in a thriller to advance to NLDS and take on the streaking Crew.
Here is everything you need to know about the upcoming five-game series – including a final prediction.
Star power
This Brewers-Rockies duel might not have the same brand appeal as some of the other franchises littering the 2018 postseason bracket, but these lineups are still loaded with stars. In fact, between likely MVP Christian Yelich, Lorenzo Cain, Nolan Arenado and Trevor Story, this series features three of the NL’s top four finishers in wins above replacement (WAR) and four of the top eight.
Arenado is one of the biggest stars in the game, yet he still flies under the radar. Over the last four seasons, he ranks fifth in NL with a sterling .931 OPS. This year, all he did was blast a league-leading 38 dingers, including four in the final three games of the regular season. He will turn this series in an instant if he gets a cookie on the inner-half of the plate.
The one positive for the Brewers is that Arenado has struggled away from Coors Field in 2018, as his Lou Gehrig-esque homer numbers dip to paltry Neil Walker levels on the road. In three games at Miller Park this year, Arenado finished 3-12 with a home run, a walk and two strikeouts. Craig Counsell would sign up for that batting line right now if possible.
The 25-year-old Story posted a monster comeback campaign this year alongside Arenado, especially once the weather heated up. From June 2 onwards, he posted a .320/.361/.618 slash line with 61 extra-base hits. For the season, Story collected 86 extra-base knocks and 27 stolen bases. He still strikes out too much, but navigating the Arenado-Story duo will probably decide the series for Milwaukee. In the Wild Card game, they combined to go 4-11 with an RBI and the game-winning run.
Of course, Brewers fans are well aware of their own dynamic combination atop the order in Yelich and Cain. And while the Rockies’ sluggers might post flashier power numbers together, Milwaukee’s mashers are just as steady at the dish. Neither club’s top dogs have the advantage here, so we’ll call this a push and hand a half-point to each side.
Scoreboard: Brewers 0.5, Rockies 0.5
Starting pitching
The Rockies, however, do have a clear advantage in starting pitching. The Brewers’ staff posted a slightly better ERA throughout the season (3.92 to 4.17), but Colorado’s numbers are slightly dampened by the Coors Field effect. The Rockies’ rotation also improved after the All-Star Break and was markedly better than Milwaukee in innings pitched, strikeout rate and walk rate.
As of this article, neither team has finalized their NLDS roster, but the likely starting pitchers for the first three games will be Wade Miley, Gio Gonzalez and Jhoulys Chacin for the Brewers, and German Marquez, Tyler Anderson and Kyle Freeland for the Rockies. Luckily for the Brewers, because Colorado ace Freeland pitched in the NL Wild Card victory on Tuesday, he likely won’t toe the mound again until Game 3 on Sunday. Neither team nor their fan bases really trust their arms, but the ability of the Rockies’ starters to effectively work deeper into ballgames gives Colorado the slight nod here.
Scoreboard: Rockies 1.5, Brewers 0.5
Bullpen
Can I award two points for this one? Milwaukee’s bullpen – led by the electric Josh Hader-Corey Knebel-Jeremy Jeffress triumvirate – is so dominant that it boosts the starting pitching as well. The Brewers’ starters know they don’t have to go as deep into the game and can therefore turn up the heat a little more over the first five innings. And as we’ve seen all season, including in the tiebreaker game on Monday, when Counsell hands the ball over to the pen, it’s practically over.
Hader and Knebel rank first and second, respectively, in the NL in strikeout rate, with Jeffress not far behind. Throw in the steady Corbin Burnes and midseason pickups Xavier Cedeno and Joakim Soria, and the Brewers have a bullpen worthy of a deep October run.
Scoreboard: Rockies 1.5, Brewers 1.5
Offense
We already touched on the driving forces behind each lineup, but there is plenty of overall depth behind the stars as well.
Colorado’s centerfielder Charlie Blackmon remains one of the most underrated players in the game, and while his 2018 stats do not match his stellar numbers from the previous two seasons, he still blasted 29 home runs and posted a batting line 15 percent better than league average. The performances of second baseman DJ LeMahieu and outfielder Carlos Gonzalez also slipped a tad this year, but over a five-game series, they are more than capable of turning back the clock for some October heroics.
As is the case with almost every Rockies team in history, opponents must take advantage of their road struggles. Colorado posted an NL-best .852 OPS at home this season, but slipped to second-to-last once they moved away from Coors Field (.665 OPS). The Brewers also play in a hitter’s park (albeit one in much less altitude), but their home-road splits have been relatively even, with a .753 OPS at Miller Park and a .741 mark on the road.
Since the All-Star break, the Brewers have flipped the switch and turned into an offensive juggernaut. Milwaukee ranked in the top three in the NL in OPS, batting average, home runs and steals over the finals two-and-a-half months of the regular season, as several lineup additions helped buoy the regulars and the bench alike. Even beyond Yelich and Cain, it is still easy to see almost any position player on the team winning the game for Milwaukee at the plate. After all, on Monday, the light-hitting Orlando Arcia casually went 4-4 with two decisive runs. With Travis Shaw, Ryan Braun, Jesus Aguilar, Mike Moustakas, Jonathan Schoop, Domingo Santana and Curtis Granderson, among others, Counsell has a host of options to turn to in a big spot.
Scoreboard: Brewers 2.5, Rockies 1.5
Managers
Bud Black is 13 years Counsell’s senior, but this is only his second playoff appearance as a manager and just his first appearance past the Wild Card game. The two managers should be on relatively equal footing in the dugout. (They also both captured two World Series titles as players.)
However, because Milwaukee does not have any workhorses in the rotation, and because the Crew has been deadlocked in a brutal playoff battle essentially since the spring, Counsell has been managing almost every night like a playoff game. Obviously, the intensity will ratchet up in the postseason, but Counsell’s familiarity with managing his bullpen from the fourth inning onwards will come in handy throughout October. Advantage Brewers.
Scoreboard: Brewers 3.5, Rockies 1.5
The MillerCoors Melee: Who has home-field advantage?
Obviously, by earning the NL’s top seed, the Brewers have home-field advantage should the series go to a Game 5. But does either Miller Park or Coors Field give their team a leg up?
Due to the high altitude, Coors Field is a notoriously fickle place to play; the outfield is massive, balls carry forever and breaking pitches don’t move as much in the thin air. But the Brewers had no problems playing there earlier this season when they took three of four from the Rockies. In fact, Milwaukee was nearly as good on the road this year (45-37) as Colorado was at home (47-34), so the Brewers should have no trouble adjusting to the venue change prior to Game 3.
Meanwhile, as mentioned earlier, the Brewers were one of the best teams in baseball at home this season, posting a 3.48 ERA on the mound and blasting 119 home runs in the batter’s box. Toss in the raucous Miller Park faithful that is hungry for a deep playoff run, and it will be very tough to win in Milwaukee this month.
Advantage Scoreboard: Brewers 4.5, Rockies 1.5
Playoff hashtag
While the Brewers have a massive advantage in the bullpen, Colorado more than returns the favor on social media. I am convinced that #Rocktober is the best slogan in sports, and it is only made more special because we see it so infrequently. I have absolutely no connection to the Colorado sports scene, but that still gets me hyped for playoff baseball.
The Brewers are rolling with #OurCrewOurOctober on Twitter, which is a totally acceptable slogan, but it doesn’t carry quite the same weight. (Though this is a very good tweet pun from the Brewers.) Will winning the social media battle affect the on-field result? Probably not, but only time will tell.
Advantage Scoreboard: Brewers 4.5, Rockies 2.5
History: Who needs a series win more?
This season, the Brewers finished 5-2 against the Rockies and took both series over the summer. Those results won’t have much of an impact on the NLDS, though Milwaukee will have some fuzzy feelings going against Colorado pitching. The Brewers averaged over 5.7 runs per game versus the Rockies this year.
But from a more macro-sense, these are two of the biggest losers in the MLB. This 2018 postseason marks just the fifth playoff appearance for both franchises, which is especially disappointing for the Brewers, who have existed for 23 more years than the Rockies. Both organizations have advanced to the World Series one time, with the Brewers losing in a heartbreaking Game 7 in 1982 while the Rockies were swept at the hands of the Red Sox in 2007. It’s safe to say both teams could use a W.
In the end, even though Milwaukee has won a playoff series more recently than Colorado, the Brewers get the nod, as this fan base has waited for far too long for a winner. In ESPN’s recent "Sports Misery Index," the Brewers were the sixth-saddest organization in major American sports (the Rockies were 18th). It’s high time the Brewers make another October run, and this may just be the team to do it.
Advantage Scoreboard: Brewers 5.5, Rockies 2.5
NLDS Prediction: Brewers in four
Milwaukee is the hottest team in baseball, with maybe the best hitter in the game right now. If the Brewers can continue to rack up hits in big spots, the bullpen should shut the door on Colorado’s October dreams.