{image1} While the mayor's primary race appeared to be a race for second-place, the county executive primary already has escalated into a general election contest, with the campaigns of incumbent Scott Walker and main challenger David Riemer exchanging fire.
Walker, a former Republican lawmaker, has floated the possibility that he could finish second in the primary because Republican voters have little reason to go to the polls for the presidential primary.
Walker's contention is that a higher Democrat turnout -- because of the Democratic presidential activity and the mayor's race -- could boost Riemer past him in the primary.
Riemer's camp has labeled Walker's contention as spin. On Riemer's Web site, a segment of a statement read: "If David Riemer wins the county executive primary on February 17, you can expect Dennis Kucinich to win Wisconsin's presidential primary that same day. That is just about as likely to come true.
"Riemer is an underdog. He has never run for office before. Although known in government and political circles, he is virtually unknown to the general voting public. Walker, on the other hand, has high name recognition after two years as county executive. He is well known and pretty popular. And Walker will have three times as much money as Riemer. Still, Riemer has a chance to win in April. But the Feb. 17 primary is no test of that."
Walker's campaign replied, in part: ``The majority of voters are very pleased with Walker, think he is going to win and don't even know there is a primary in this election.''
There actually could be some logic to Walker's contention.
Turnout in the city vs. the suburbs will probably be a bigger factor in the county exec primary. If city voters turn out in good numbers, Riemer could make it a very close primary.
Democratic Gov. Jim Doyle made a rather rare endorsement appearance for Riemer last week. It could be a favor from the governor to his former budget director, or the work of former Doyle and now Riemer campaign strategist Bill Christofferson. But it could also show that Democrats would really like to unseat Walker.
It will be interesting to see who loses the most votes to Joe Klein, who is expected to finish a distant third. Klein has been on both sides of the political spectrum throughout his campaign. He won't cost Walker or Riemer the chance to move to April, but some of his supporters could end up swing voters in the regular election.
Plots and Sub-plots abound in Mayor's Primary
The Feb. 17 primary election for mayor has enough plots and sub-plots to fill a campaign operative's handbook.
In the mayoral race, turnout among the African-American community could go a long way in determining who joins frontrunner Tom Barrett in the April election.
Marvin Pratt, who is serving as interim mayor and has a long history on the Common Council, likely will draw the majority of African Americans' votes, but three other candidates will siphon off some of those votes.
Former police Chief Art Jones, Frank Cumberbatch and County Sheriff David Clarke -- all African Americans -- will win their share of the votes. If the turnout among African Americans is low, their shares could be enough to make it difficult for Pratt.
A low African-American turnout could give Clarke a chance to survive the primary, since he will attract the relative low percentage of minorities who consider themselves political conservatives. Clarke also should run strong among conservative white voters on the South Side.
If African Americans vote in decent numbers, Pratt should benefit and move to the April election.
Pundits who figure Barrett is a lock could get a surprise, but the former congressman and gubernatorial candidate should survive the primary, in part because he will draw minority and white voters.
Pratt's time as interim mayor might also be a factor in the outcome. He stirred some controversy early by firing a couple department heads left over from the Norquist administration. But that controversy has died down rather quickly, and probably resonated more among city government insiders than it did with voters.
Meanwhile, Pratt has been everywhere in his role as interim mayor, and visibility never hurts a candidate unless he is seen walking into a courthouse after being indicted or shouting like a mad man in Iowa.
The Harley-Davidson museum announcement came during Pratt's time in office. That could help him, but an announcement last week that the cost of moving the Department of Public Works to make room for the museum would be more than Pratt's original estimate could hurt him.
Clarke could be hurt by the signature snafu that nearly bounced him off the ballot and some recent stories about budget shortfalls in the sheriff's department. Some see these incidents as examples of poor management skills on his part.
Others might vote for Clarke because they feel the stories are examples of persecution since he dares to be an African-American conservative.
Opponents also have attacked Clarke for having as much or more support from outside the city, in the more conservative suburbs and Republican strongholds like Waukesha County. It remains to be seen if those attacks become a factor.
Presidential race
Howard Dean has looked to Wisconsin as his last chance for survival in many ways. Milwaukee will play a big part in the statewide vote one way or the other.
Dean made two appearances in Milwaukee in one week and even did "Meet The Press" with Tim Russert from the TMJ-4 studios on Feb. 1. Dean spent most of Friday in Milwaukee, after canceling a trip to Sheboygan. John Edwards was there on Saturday and is due back on Tuesday night.
Frontrunner John Kerry has not concentrated heavily on the state and might not have to, but his camp doesn't want to lose any momentum heading into the big states of California and New York. Polls also show him in the lead in Wisconsin.
Look for a barrage of commercials and campaign events in the race in this last week before Feb. 17.
CORRECTION: Edwin Thaves, a candidate in the 4th District Aldermanic race, was identified as Edwin Thanes in this column last week
--Hoffmann is a veteran journalist and senior lecturer in journalism and mass communication at UW-Milwaukee. Versions of Milwaukee Insight appear in WisPolitics.com and OnMilwaukee.com.
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