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You can hardly blame Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett if he hasn't been completely focused on the 2010 governor's race
"I really haven't decided to run," he said. "I had to get through the budget.
"And I had to heal," he added, sporting a cast on his right hand from an August attack after he intervened in a domestic dispute near Wisconsin State Fair.
Things have changed that could make Barrett more likely to run.
First, he got through the budget, delivering it to the Common Council on Thursday. More important, Democratic U.S. Rep. Ron Kind announced the same day that he was out of the race. Meanwhile, Barrett admitted that the clock is ticking, saying that he would have to make a decision within the next few weeks.
Barrett is nothing if not deliberate. He thought long and hard about giving up his seat in the U.S. House of Representatives -- a seat he could easily have held for years -- before deciding to run for governor in 2002. After that, he deliberated for weeks before running for mayor. So there is no reason to think he won't be giving a great deal of thought to another statewide run.
Barrett also has family considerations. The questions is, does he really want to spend the next year on the road, and then move to the governor's mansion, while his family is settled in Milwaukee?
Several other factors could go into Barrett's decision.
Barrett enjoys a great deal of support in the Milwaukee media market, the state's largest. He had only token opposition in his re-election, and the attack only seemed to make him more popular. He's also known as one of the most likeable politicians around. All that has to make a statewide run tempting.
In addition, Barrett has been through a governor's race in 2002, so he knows what it takes to build an organization and he probably has some decent name recognition.
His fundraising abilities are formidable. He already has $840,000 in the bank. And although Lt. Gov. Barbara Lawton, who would be Barrett's Democratic primary opponent, is burning up the phones looking for support, Barrett will have a distinct advantage in further building campaign coffers.
He also has executive experience. While the city is encountering financial problems, the nonpartisan Public Policy Forum called Milwaukee "well-managed."
On the other hand, Barrett lost to Lawton in a straw poll of Wisconsin Democrats by wispolitics.com in June, meaning Democratic activists might fall in behind her. But the poll was taken before Gov. Jim Doyle announced he was not running again, and the results were so small -- Lawton won 82 to 33 -- that it's hard to place much relevance on it. In fact, Barrett beat Doyle in straw polls against Doyle in 2001 and 2002, but Doyle went on to become governor.
In addition, Milwaukee is not a hotbed for governors (something County Executive Scott Walker, a Republican gubernatorial candidate, might also have considered). The last governor from Milwaukee was Martin Schreiber, who became acting governor when Gov. Patrick Lucey was appointed ambassador to Mexico in 1977. Schreiber was defeated in his bid for a full term by Lee S. Dreyfus of Stevens Point. The last governor elected from Milwaukee was Julius Heil in 1938.
But Barrett is great at one-to-one campaigning, and he seems to thoroughly enjoy it, although until further notice he will be shaking hands with his left.
The main question for Barrett is whether he wants to put himself through what is likely to be a contentious Democratic primary and a brutal general election.
A Web site, Barrett2010.com, has already been created (but it's empty). But so far, Barrett isn't tipping his hand. He's got too much thinking to do.