The long and winding NFC road

The precarious high wire the Packers have been balancing on since ending a two-game losing streak in early December gave way at both ends Sunday, plunging Green Bay from the heights of home-field ecstasy to a third-seed, a short work week and a daunting NFC slate, clouding any thoughts of wintering in San Diego.

In addition to losing home-field advantage, the injury-depleted Pack also squandered the precious bye week that goes with it by losing badly to the Jets. Now, they must stick their chins out into the cold Lambeau wind Saturday night to prove an 8-1 start was not a mirage.

Since winning seven in a row to reach that mark, the team has gone just 4-3, including tight wins against Chicago (4-12), Minnesota (6-10) and Buffalo (8-8) at home. While the defense's utter collapse against New York was surprising -- especially coming off the unit's best performance in two years -- losing to a talented and desperate Jets team was not a total shocker.

Now, the Packers must possess the prerequisite of any good baseball closer: a short memory. There are just a few days to prepare for Michael Vick and the Falcons, and no time at all to dwell on might-have-beens.

If the Packers can get by Atlanta, losers of three of its last four, FOX will get the matchup its been waiting for ever since the moment Mike Sherman decided to confront Warren Sapp on the Raymond James Stadium turf last month: Green Bay vs. Tampa Bay. It's just too bad it won't be in Wisconsin.

Admittedly, it's difficult to like Green Bay's chances for a Super Bowl berth at the moment. Winning one game on the road to win the conference championship isn't unheard of -- New England, Baltimore and Tennessee have each turned the trick over the last three years in the AFC. But among that group, only the Ravens won twice on the road, which is the stretch of highway the Packers are now driving down. In the NFC? It hasn't happened since the Los Angeles Rams won at Dallas and Tampa Bay on their way to Super Bowl XIV following the 1979 season.

Then again, Green Bay, Tampa and Philly all finished 12-4, tying for the best record in football. And the Packers led the Bucs 7-3 at halftime in November before Brett Favre's worst half of the season.

Surely, the Packers are not playing their best football, but the Eagles are also coming off a loss, still don't know the status of Donovan McNabb and have the highest expectations in the NFC. Tampa's offense appears on course for its annual January hibernation, though the injured Brad Johnson should be ready for work again in two weeks.

In fact, the wild-card New York Giants are playing the best football in the NFC. The Giants have won four straight to finish 10-6, including impressive wins against playoff-bound Philadelphia and Indianapolis. But the Giants face three road games to win the conference: at San Francisco, a probable trip to Philadelphia and then to one of the Bays.

But, as the saying goes, the Packers have Brett Favre. And while national pundits will repeat the mantra ad nauseum up to and through Saturday night's game, Mike Sherman needs three things to happen to set up "Sapp-Sherman II" (This Time, It's Really Personal) -- beyond the required quality outing from his quarterback:

--Solve the impending disaster on punt returns. Darrien Gordon may not have returned worth a lick (and some will argue his coverage mates didn't block much better), but he generally secured the ball. Eric Metcalf returned from a season in exile to muff two kicks and go backwards on a couple others. Where is J.J. Moses when you need him?

Metcalf is acceptably rusty; he hasn't played since 2001. So why not stick Robert Ferguson, Terry Glenn or Darren Sharper back there, if only to call fair catches? All three handle the ball on a regular basis. The Packers have very little margin for error at the moment, and a punt mishap deep in their own territory could kill the season.

Some free wisdom for special teams coach Frank Novak to dispense to his returner du jour: When the ball is kicked over your head, run as fast as you can in the other direction. Do NOT try to pick up a bouncing/skittering ball while running toward your own end zone.

--Re-ignite the defense. Obviously, the windy and frigid conditions at Lambeau on Dec. 22 helped key the team's best defensive outing of the year. They'll hopefully get more of the same elements Saturday, but the defense will need to shake off lousy efforts from the entire secondary and most of the linebacking crew in order to contain Vick and perennial Packer thorn Warrick Dunn.

--Get off on the right foot. Green Bay's first quarter blues have gone from malady to epidemic. Sherman should consider a quick kick on third down on Saturday's first possession if only to avoid another early three-and-out.

Favre's habitual tendency to get overexcited and throw a high pick in the first five minutes of a game are duly noted, but the answer is not to throw only check-down routes on the first three drives of every game. When Favre starts to throw the ball down the field, as he did Sunday prior to halftime, the offense tends to find its rhythm.

Obviously, Sherman and offensive coordinator Tom Rossley are trying to find the balance between aggressiveness and stupidity. But it's a one-game season now, and the shackles may as well be tossed aside.

See you in Tampa Bay.