{image1}The similarities are fairly obvious.

The 2004 Packers were two-time defending NFC Central champions but got off to a surprising and embarrassing 1-4 start. The 2005 Packers, now the three-time defending NFC Central champions, have also gotten off to an embarrassing, though less surprising, 1-4 start.

Both seasons featured home losses that looked like sure wins: a 21-10 defeat to the Bears in Week 2 last year, a 26-24 loss to Cleveland in Week 2 this year. Each fourth loss came on Monday night, convincing most Packers fans (and most of the nation) that Green Bay and Brett Favre were both, once and for all, washed up.

But will 2005 feature a 2004 repeat? Is another miracle turnaround possible?

2004's 1-4 Snapshot

After Tennessee embarrassed the Packers on Monday Night Football to drop them to 1-4, it was crystal clear that Green Bay's main problem was a leaky defense. The Packers and first-year coordinator Bob Slowik were torched by both the Titans (48 points, 456 yards) and Colts (45 points, 453 yards) in the season's first month. Overall, the Packers had been outscored 142-99 through five games.

Part of the issue was an inexperienced secondary, thanks to the Week 4 trade of Mike McKenzie to the Saints. Darren Sharper was having the type of the year that made him expendable after the season, and rookies Ahmad Carroll and Joey Thomas saw little playing time in the early going. Stout defensive tackle Grady Jackson had missed all but a few snaps in the first five weeks with a knee injury.

The offense eventually went on to have a big season, but it was inconsistent early. The Bears and Giants held the Packers to 10 and 7 points, respectively, even though Brett Favre was off to a generally solid start (9 TDs vs. 6 interceptions).

Injuries weren't a critical concern, though Mike Flanagan was lost for the season by Week 5, Jackson had been out and Najeh Davenport would not see his first real action until Week 6 against Detroit. All absences were problematic, but their sum paled in comparison to this year's onslaught.

The divisional competition was also vastly different. Minnesota and Detroit were both 3-1 after Week 5, while the Bears were just 1-3 -- their only victory having come against Green Bay. Despite the odds, victories over both the Vikings and Lions helped put the Packers in first place by early November.

2005's 1-4 Snapshot

While defense was the primary culprit early in 2004, the 2005 Packers have been equal-opportunity underachievers. The offense scored just 56 points through the first three games and three quarters, but a 16-point rally in Carolina and Sunday's 52-point outburst gave the team 124 points after five games (compared to 99 last year). Meanwhile, the five turnovers the defense forced against New Orleans were three more than they had created in the first four games combined.

Like last year, the 2005 Packers broke a four-game losing streak in grand fashion, slamming New Orleans 52-3 at Lambeau Field. In 2004, it was a 38-10 blitz of Detroit in Week 6 that began Green Bay's playoff run.

The team's vulnerability at home is also characteristic of both seasons. The Packers lost their opening three home games in 2004 and dropped their first two this season. Including the playoff loss to Minnesota, the Packers finished a mediocre 4-5 at Lambeau in 2004.

While some of these facts seem to augur a repeat, there is one major problem: the 2005 Packers are far less healthy and deep than last year's team. Javon Walker, Davenport and rookie Terrence Murphy are done for the year, while starters Nail Diggs, Mike Flanagan, Ahman Green and Bubba Franks have all missed significant time. Unknowns Donald Lee and ReShard Lee saw numerous snaps offensively against the Saints, and undrafted rookie linebacker Roy Manning may start for the foreseeable future.

Taking the injuries into account, it's difficult to see the Packers once again winning eight of their final 10 games to finish 10-6. Still, that doesn't mean they won't make the playoffs. At 2-2, Detroit leads the weak NFC Central, with the Bears and Vikings just one-half game ahead of Green Bay at 1-3. What's more, all three teams have looked as bad as the Packers at various times.

Is this year's 1-4 better or worse than last year's 1-4? Well, the Packers have a weaker offensive line, more injuries and a younger defense than they did last year. The defense promises to improve as the year goes on, though, and Brett Favre should register his typical season. 10-6? That's a real long shot. But after the win against the Saints, at least hope has been restored in Green Bay. Funny what a 49-point win can do to your mood.