{image1}If you're wondering about the legitimacy of the Wisconsin Badgers after their 3-0 start to the 2005 season, you won't have to wonder much longer. The answer to the debate arrives this week, as it usually does, when Michigan comes to Camp Randall Stadium.

The season-opening win against Bowling Green posed more questions than answers; the blowout over Temple was as meaningful as a Farrelly Brothers film; and the win over North Carolina showed only that the Tar Heels football team isn't nearly as good as its hoops squad. In short, the 3-0 non-conference mark gets UW halfway to a bowl bid in Barry Alvarez's last season, but it tells us little about what type of team the outgoing coach really has.

On the contrary, the Wolverines game could tell us everything -- as well as play a key role in the Big 10 standings. Almost no one expects the Badgers to challenge for the crown in a top-heavy league -- UM, Ohio State, Iowa, Purdue and even Michigan State all have more "realistic" title hopes than UW. But just as an early loss could serve as a major roadblock for Lloyd Carr's team, an upset win over Michigan could propel the Badgers to big things in the Big 10.

Not that I'm predicting the upset, mind you. Michigan not only habitually beats the Badgers (UW hasn't beaten UM since 1994), they tend to beat them just when things are looking rosy in Madison.

For instance, the back-to-back Rose Bowl teams of 1998-99 had two conference losses across the two title seasons; both were to Michigan. The '98 team, which went on to defeat UCLA in Pasadena, entered Ann Arbor at 9-0 only to fall flat in a 27-10 loss. The '99 team dropped its Big 10 opener at Camp Randall (21-16) before running the table and winning another Rose Bowl.

In the last three games the teams played (they didn't meet in 2003 or 2004), Michigan beat the Badgers by 3, 3 and 7 points, each loss featuring varying levels of excruciation for Wisconsin. In 2000, Vitaly Pisetsky missed a game-tying field goal with less than 3 minutes remaining after a late UM touchdown put the Wolverines ahead to stay, 13-10. The next year, a muffed punt deep in UW territory set up a chip shot field goal and a 20-17 Michigan win in regulation with seconds remaining. And in 2002, a game-tying drive in the last 2 minutes died in Michigan territory, leading to a 21-14 loss. Basically, Big Blue has Bucky's number. Will the trend continue?

Michigan entered the season ranked in the Top 5 and opened with a humdrum victory over Northern Illinois, 33-17. The next week, with many experts picking a Michigan rout, Notre Dame visited Ann Arbor and stunned the Wolverines, 17-10, with sophomore quarterback Chad Henne committing two turnovers in the red zone. Last weekend, Carr's team cleansed its palette with a dollop of Eastern Michigan at home, winning 55-0.

Both teams are battling some injury problems. Michigan has been without sophomore star running back Michael Hart since early in the ND game. Hart should test his injured hamstring this week, otherwise UW will get a heavy does of backup Kevin Grady, a thicker version of the 5-9 Hart. Max Martin, who ran for more than 100 yards against EMU, could also see time if Hart is still hobbled.

While Michigan's running situation is cloudy, so is the status of the group designated to stop it. UW's defensive line suffered a key loss when end Jamal Cooper suffered a torn ACL in North Carolina, adding another injury to a unit already without fellow starter Justin Ostrowski and reserve Kurt Ware, who missed Saturday's game because of chicken pox. Ware may not be recovered in time for the Big 10 opener, leaving a young and thin group to battle the Wolverines.

That would be bad enough, but it's been Michigan's big-play ability that has hurt Alvarez's teams in the past. Henne will target receivers Steve Breaston (also a dangerous punt returner), Jason Avant and Mario Manningham, the latter a true freshman who scored his first collegiate touchdown against Notre Dame. Like David Terrell and Braylon Edwards before them, each has the ability to turn a close game in Michgan's favor.

For the Badgers to spring the upset, they'll have to contain Michigan's running game, limit downfield passes from Henne to his speedy wideouts and get another big game from Brian Calhoun. NIU racked up 211 rushing yards in Ann Arbor, and UW has a deeper and better running game than the Huskies. Since then, however, Michigan has allowed just 119 yards rushing in two games.

A Badgers victory is a longshot. UW has proven to be better than the opening quarter against Bowling Green suggested, but this is still a team trying to define itself. However, the Badgers do have one key factor in their favor: not only is Saturday Michigan's first road game, it's also a 5 p.m. start at Camp Randall. Evening games -- such as the 2003 win over No. 3 Ohio State -- tend to bring out the best in the crowd and the team in Madison. Both will need to be at the top of their games to get Alvarez his third career victory against mighty Michigan.