The Packers haven't had a pick in the top five of the draft since 1992 when Ron Wolf made his debut as Packers GM by selecting the enigmatic Terrell Buckley. Wolf was always haunted by the fact that Buckley wasn't local hero Troy Vincent -- but at least he built a Super Bowl champion.
Ted Thompson is entering his second draft at the helm of the Packers. He, too, is in charge of building a Super Bowl champion and hitting big with the fifth pick of the draft would be a good start.
The privilege of having the fifth pick comes with the reality of why a team is in that position. The Packers are a football team in flux with more than a few holes to fill. This is only made worse by the indecision of Brett Favre and the unhappiness of Javon Walker. What could be looked upon as the strengths of the team could turn into gaping holes if neither returns to play for the green and gold.
There also is the delicate balance of free agency. Thompson has done a good job not acting like a kid in a candy store. Just because the Packers have the money to spend doesn't mean they should blow it on anyone who walks in the door.
Besides re-singing their own free agents - Ahman Green, Aaron Kampman and Kevin Barry -- the Packers have solidified an improving defense with the acquisitions of Ryan Pickett, Marquand Manuel and Ben Taylor. They also have their lure in the water trying to entice LaVar Arrington to Green Bay, which would solidify a linebacking corps that has been begging for playmakers for years. Also looming is Charles Woodson, but his 30-year-old legs have to be a concern.
Going into the draft the Packers have major holes at defensive line, linebacker and guard. Luck have it, two of the top 10 players play those positions.
The draft is going to hinge on the whether the New Orleans Saints and the Tennessee Titans take quarterbacks. It is likely that the Houston Texans will take Reggie Bush first overall, then if the Saints follow with Matt Leinart and the Titans with Vince Young, the Jets are likely to take Virginia tackle D'Brickshaw Ferguson leaving the Packers with the choice of North Carolina State defensive end Mario Williams or Ohio State linebacker A. J. Hawk.
Either player would make an immediate impact on a Packer defense that is starting to take shape. Williams would supplant Kabeer Gjaba-Biamila as the every down defensive end, allowing KGB to come in strictly as a third down pass rusher for Aaron Kampman. Hawk may push Nick Barnett to the weak side and be the captain of the defense for years to come. Also, if you dare to dream, add in Arrington.
More likely, the Saints will take Williams, leaving Leinart to the Titans. If the Jets still take Ferguson, the Packers would have then be left with Hawk or the enticing prospect of Vince Young.
Yes, the Packers spent last year's first round pick on quarterback Aaron Rogers, but players like Young only come along once in a generation. If Thompson keeps the Packers pick and avoids making a Trev Alberts-like selection, we would likely see one of the following first rounders in Green Bay:
Mario Williams
Position: Defensive End
Height: 6'7"
Weight: 295
40 Time: 4.78
School: North Carolina State
Summary: All you have to know about the guy's ability is that he has been compared to Reggie White. His combination of size and speed are off of the charts. Coupled with extremely long arms, he is next to impossible to block. Simply said, he is a playmaker that could change any defense, especially the Packers - where Williams' ability to play both strongly against the run as well as the pass could solidify a weak defensive line.
Outlook: It is unlikely that Williams gets past the Saints at pick No. 2. If Williams is still on the board at No. 5, it would be a no-brainer for Thompson.
A. J. Hawk
Position: Linebacker
Height: 6'1"
Weight: 248
40 Time: 4.65
School: Ohio State
Summary: A.J. Hawk is a throw-back type of linebacker that mixes in sheer determination with sideline to sideline ability. Hawk brings the type of intensity to a defense that is contagious -- something that the Packers desperately need. He is a sure tackler in the mix as well as in open space. He has the instincts of a middle linebacker and could solidify the Packers corps by pushing Nick Barnett to the weak side.
Outlook: Hawk is the likely pick if Williams is off of the board. If the Packers do not select Hawk with at No. 5, it is likely that they didn't think highly enough of his value in this slot and will trade down a few spots to stockpile draft picks.
Vince Young
Position: Quarterback
Height: 6'5"
Weight: 229
40 Time: 4.58
School: Texas
Summary: Every year there is a player that is on the board where the camps are split in regards to his future success. Normally those types of players have some minor flaw where, over the course of time, the player is so overly scrutinized that you tend to forget his accomplishments on the football filed.
Ladies and gentleman, the National Champion Quarterback: Vince Young
Forget about his sidearm throwing style -- the man is 6'5". Forget about the fact that he hasn't played in a pro offense -- if any coach tries to make him a pocket passer they would be doing their team a disservice. Just ask Jim Mora, Jr.
All you need to remember is that Young is a fantastic athlete, an accurate passer and, most importantly, a winner. If you can't remember the last part, watch the 2006 Rose Bowl. Young's back is still sore from carry the great state of Texas.
Outlook: Thompson would need courage to pull the trigger on Young, but it would be hard to blame him if he did. Although, between the Favre mystery and Aaron Rogers, it seems unlikely.
Vernon Davis
Position: Tight End
Height: 6'3"
Weight: 254
40 Time: 4.4
School: Maryland
Summary: Vernon Davis is a flat out freak. No man that big should be able to run sub 4.4. To go along with his speed and quickness, he is a solid route runner and has an innate ability to get open. He also has very good hands and has proven to make both the ordinary and the miraculous catch. He definitely can stretch the defense, something the Packers haven't had since the Chmura/Jackson days. Davis is also an adequate and improving blocker.
Outlook: If Thompson is looking to make an offensive splash to make Favre a happier camper, then this might be the way to go. If he has nabbed Davis as his guy, trading down a few spots might be a possibility - especially if Young is still on the board.
Haloti Ngata
Position: Defensive Tackle
Height: 6'4 1/2"
Weight: 338
40 Time: 5.16
School: Oregon
Summary: Ngata is a monster that consistently demands double teams. He is the type of tackle that all teams are looking for to plug the run. He has had experience playing both nose tackle as well as the three technique. He has shown the ability to split double teams and yet has enough quickness to push the pocket back to the quarterback. He could be a great fit at nose next to recent signee Pickett.
Outlook: Ngata is a sleeper pick for the Packers, but not at No. 5. This would definitely be a trading down situation for another pick early in the second round.
Second Round Gems
What may be even more important than hitting big in the first round is taking advantage of picking early in every subsequent round. Ron Wolf built his teams through his mid-round picks, not by hitting home runs with his first round selections. They are in a great spot to get another impact player at the beginning of the second round and if Thompson does decide to move down from the five spot, he may have more than one swing.
Here are some second round possibilities:
Tamba Hali
Position: Defensive End
Height: 6'3"
Weight: 271
40 Time: 4.70
School: Penn State
Summary: Hali is another guy that seems to be dropping due to being overanalyzed. He is a guy that is good, but not a great athlete, but more than makes up for any deficiency with his full tilt motor. He has shown on film that he could dominate games - he was un-blockable against both Wisconsin and Florida State.
Outlook: If the Packers end up with Hawk in the first round, Hali would be an absolute steal if he fell to them in the early second round.
Mercedes Lewis
Position: Tight End
Height: 6'6"
Weight: 256
40 Time: 4.84
School: UCLA
Summary: Another player that had first-round aspirations, but seems to be dropping. Lewis is an intriguing tight end due to his size and his great hands. He is not the greatest athlete in the world, but runs better than his times. He doesn't always shows up, but is a consistent blocker and has a very high ceiling.
Outlook: The Packers have more pressing needs to fill and Lewis is no Vernon Davis.
D'Quell Jackson
Position: Linebacker
Height: 6'1"
Weight: 222
40 Time: 4.86
School: Maryland
Summary: Jackson is an undersized that linebacker that is always around the ball. His "lack" of size is why he most likely will fall into the second round despite being the ACC defensive player of the year. May have trouble at the point of attack, but his instincts and willingness to dish out punishment outweigh all of the numbers on paper.
Outlook: Jackson is a possibility if the Packers don't select Hawk in the first round.
Davin Joseph
Position: Guard
Height: 6'3"
Weight: 306
40 Time: 5.13
School: Oklahoma
Summary: Joseph is a former tackle that will project to guard in the NFL. His background at tackle gives him good feet in pass protection, but his main attribute is his brute strength at the point of attack. He is a very good athlete for his size and, in time, could to develop into a fantastic guard.
Outlook: The Packers have a huge hole at guard and need to spend a pick on an offensive lineman. The reason why Favre is wavering is because he doesn't want to lineup behind Will Whitticker and Adrian Klemm.
Eric Winston
Position: Tackle
Height: 6'7"
Weight: 312
40 Time: 5.04
School: Miami
Summary: Winston was formally projected as a first rounder but hasn't yet fully recovered from a knee injury two seasons ago. A very good athlete that projects as a left tackle, but easily could move over to the right. A solid pass blocker but has shown at times to be a dominating run blocker.
Outlook: The Packers have three solid tackles, but a possible move would be to shift Mark Tauscher to guard to fill a hole. Winston played in a pro style offense at Miami and reminds some of Chad Clifton.
Third Round Sleepers
While it is fun to try and project what might be available in the first 40 picks, it is still a crapshoot. Here are a few names that could be available in the third round:
Devin Hester
Position: Cornerback
Height: 6'3"
Weight: 180
40 Time: 4.31
School: Miami
Summary: Hester may be the most dynamic return man since Rocket Ismail. He has been the Miami offense over the past two years -- in terms of returning kicks for touchdowns and teams kicking away from him. Doesn't always handle the ball well and doesn't really have a definite position, but his unbelievable athletic ability make him more than worth the price.
Outlook: Hester could give the Packers a game breaker for the first time since Desmond Howard.
Max Jean-Giles
Position: Guard
Height: 6'4"
Weight: 340
40 Time: 5.50
School: Georgia
Summary: Jean-Giles is a mammoth offensive lineman that is very light on his feet for his size. He is surprisingly solid in pass protection and is decent when pulling. What is causing him to fall to the third round are his weight and lack of tenacity. If he loses weight and gets in better shape, he could be a solid guard in the NFL for years and a steal in the third round.
Outlook: He may be a project, but depth at the offensive line for the Pack is a concern.
Summary
My hope is that by some miracle, Williams falls to the Pack. Seeing the unlikeliness of this event, Thompson will be smiling if Hawk is there to take and Tamba Hali falls to him in the second round.
As for the rest of the draft, drafting the best player available will be necessary. The Packers have more than one hole to fill and reaching to fill a hole is a recipe for disaster.
Living in a dream world would have Favre return, Walker to have a change of heart, sign Arrington and fill the defensive holes with Hawk and Hali. That team on paper in better than 4-12, and without a dominant team in the NFC North, anything can happen.
Enjoy Mel's hair!
