The day before the post season starts and everybody is jumping in with their picks.
From what I hear on Philly sports radio, most Philly fans think the Phillies will win the series in three or four games. This should not surprise anyone.
But many national analysts are agreeing with Philadelphians. ESPN's entire baseball lineup is siding with the Phils. Either all of the so called experts are full of crap (possible) or the Phils might have a real shot at going to the NLCS (hard to believe, Harry).
If everyone thinks the Phillies will win, what could possibly go wrong?
Two words: Cole Hamels.
In "The Princess Bride," we were advised to never go up against a Sicilian when death was on the line. The 2008 Phillies version might be "never trust the Californian when the series is on the line." Despite Brett Myers getting the start on opening day, everyone and your mother knew that Cole Hamels was the Phillies ace. And despite a lack of run support, his number for the season back that up.
So why worry? Around Philadelphia, both in the clubhouse and on the street, I think young Cole is developing a reputation as being unable to handle the big game. Underneath the California cool is a jangling bag of nerves. In a town where the locals loved "Nails" (Lenny Dykstra), you have to worry when they start calling the ace "Mr. Softee" around town.
This started last October when he informed everyone he would not be willing to start Game 4 (of the series against the Rockies) on short rest. (See this story below.) You see, you want to hear your ace say "Give me the damn ball" not "It's too much of a risk."
This continued on through this past week. It was suggested that he would have to pitch last Sunday if the Phillies needed a win to get into the playoffs. When the Phillies clinched Saturday and he realized he wouldn't have to get a win on Sunday, he told a reporter: "Trust me, my heart started beating a little bit faster (in the ninth inning), because I know I had to mentally prepare for a game, especially for a game of that significance ... I'm glad I don't have to do that. I'm going to have quite a few beers to celebrate ..." Sound like an ace to you?
One more note on Hamels. He'll be pitching Game 1 on about 13 days rest. Here's a nugget from the Philadelphia Inquirer:
"... when Hamels pitches on normal rest he has a 2.47 ERA in 16 starts. When he pitches on five days of rest or more, he has a 3.95 ERA in 11 starts."
All things being equal, there are many in Philly who would feel much more confident if Jamie "The Fossil" Moyer were toeing the rubber. Yes, he is older than the pitching mound's dirt. Yes, his fastball is slower than Charlie Manuel's draw. But when the team needs a win, he's gotten it done every time. He brings the confidence you want to see on the mound in October.
