Green Bay Packers (11-6) at Atlanta Falcons (13-3)
Georgia Dome, Atlanta
Saturday, 7:30 p.m. (FOX)
Regular season numbers
- Points per game: Packers -- 24.3 (10th), Falcons -- 25.9 (5th).
- Total Off. Yards per game: Packers -- 358.1 (9th), Falcons -- 341.1 (16th).
- Penalties: Packers -- 78 (T-3rd), Falcons -- 58 (1st).
- Points per game allowed: Packers -- 15.0 (2nd), Falcons -- 18.0 (5th).
- Takeaway/Giveaway: Packers -- +10 (4th), Falcons -- +14 (3rd).
Keys to victory
Green Bay
Packers receivers will need to have those receiving gloves strapped tight. Falcon defenders allowed a fourth worst 364 receptions to receivers during the regular season, but at the same time allowed a fourth best 38 receptions of 20+ yards. In other words, the Falcons will limit the big plays and make Aaron Rodgers dink and dunk.
Sam Shields and Tramon Williams will need to hold their own on the outside against Roddy White and Michael Jenkins so that Charles Woodson can play spy again and support against the run. I suspect Woodson will also be responsible for putting a blanket on tight end Tony Gonzalez on third downs and in certain red-zone situations.
Mike McCarthy has to continue to utilize Brandon Jackson, James Starks, and John Kuhn to keep the Falcons defense on their heels. As much as Packer fans want Starks to be the featured back, a healthy balance using all three in certain situations is going to be the right recipe, especially if the Packers want to hit a few big plays down the field on play-action.
Atlanta
Quarterback Matt Ryan is a lifetime 20-2 at home and has thrown just 12 interceptions to 32 touchdowns. If he plays a smart football game, and doesn't try and do too much, the Falcons should win, or if nothing else stay close.
Defensive end Kroy Biermann must hold contain on the outside and not let Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers roll to his right to buy time. If Biermann over-pursues to the inside Rodgers will eat up the Falcons secondary.
Offensive coordinator Mike Mularkey must find creative ways to move top wide receiver Roddy White around, so he doesn't get locked down by Packers top cornerback Tramon Williams. White must make a few big plays to keep the rushing attack potent.
Prime match-up
Packers RB James Starks vs. Falcons RB Michael Turner -- Blinded by the amazing Marshawn Lynch run Packer fans promptly were found belly-aching on message boards and on-air radio shows before even seeing James Starks provide much steadier and impressive overall production against the Eagles. Starks will face a stiffer challenge this week though, when he tries to out-run the Falcons' Michael Turner to a NFC Championship. Turner is a horse to bring down, as the Packers experienced when they allowed him to average 4.8 yards per carry in Week 12. Furthermore, in the last two seasons when he has come off a bye week Turner has totaled 204 yards and five touchdowns.
Final score prediction: Green Bay -- 24, Atlanta -- 20
