When trying to figure out for the love of Balata who is going to win a men's professional major championship, the automatic default is to Tiger Woods.
He is simply the best player on the planet, even with eight months off following reconstructive ACL surgery on his left knee. He made that point emphatically by winning for the sixth time in his career at Bay Hill in only his third start of the 2009 PGA Tour season.
Woods has not been bulletproof nor automatic in his dramatic comeback. At both of the World Golf Championship events, Woods struggled with his putter. If that is the case at Augusta National for the 73rd playing of The Masters, then the season's first major is literally up for grabs to an array of unusual suspects.
We'll divide some of them up into what caddies refer to as Green Light (go for it), Yellow Light (maybe, but with caution) and Red Light (no, not under any circumstances) hole locations.
In the Red Light District:
Greg Norman -- The always charismatic Australian earned his way on to Augusta National by tying for third at the 2008 British Open. Hard to imagine Norman's playing career would end without a green jacket in his collection, but realistically at age 54 it would be a lot to ask that Norman not only beat, Woods, Geoff Ogilvy, Rory McIlroy and the rest of the field, but Father Time as well.
Fred Couples -- Boom Boom has played exceptionally well this season on the links while off it there has been much personal turmoil (the death of his estranged wife). He held the lead until late at the Shell Houston Open before fading to a tie for third. As with a Norman win, would be a great but not realistic, story.
Ernie Els -- To some, this would be a surprise. However, while the Big Easy has physically recovered from his knee injury suffered years ago, the mental burden of trying to regain his form, nurturing an autistic child and holding off a rather large pack of talented contenders seems to have taken their toll.
Trevor Immelman -- He will not repeat as the Masters Champion. Did not play well the remainder of '08 after his first major championship victory. Has the physical tools to contend but has not shown the ability to bounce back and close.
Sergio Garcia -- There are horses for courses and this is not his pony ride. Garcia's best chance for a major, are, in order, British Open, PGA, US Open, Masters. He's a great ball striker, not a great putter. Will The Players be the only "major" on his resume when it's all said and done?
Padraig Harrington. In this world of self-promotion, I'm sure the "Paddy Slam" sounded like a good idea. The simple fact is, whoever would have won the '08 PGA would be going for some sort of Slam, takes away from the fact that only Paddy, with a victory, can claim the last three majors in a row. Still this is not his cup of cabbage stew nor a course that traditionally sets up for his style of play.
Yellow Light
Vijay Singh -- Has had knee surgery and other ailments to deal with in '09. The definition of a "streak putter" and as the putter goes, so goes VJ.
Anthony Kim -- Still learning to take it all in. Victories on Tour, the Ryder Cup, the appearance money overseas, knowing when to know when. It's a sharp curve and one that tosses the young ones about. Still, it would take a great week from a feel player to put it all together and if done, would require more adjustments as the season moved along.
Rory McIlroy -- Yep, he's young, he's sound of swing and even with Darren Clarke as a mentor, there is a chance that the 19-year old from Northern Ireland could be a winner in his first Masters, just like Fuzzy Zoeller in 1979. Great kid, great swing, great demeanor, can be the total package.
Steve Stricker. An exceptional putter, which is needed at Augusta National, but in truth, not his favorite golf course. That could change with a hot round, but the question remains, can he close the deal come Sunday?
Hunter Mahan -- Has all the firepower and moxie needed to temper Augusta National but can he keep his wits about him for four days.
Zach Johnson. Had a plan and executed exceptionally well to win in '07. Depends on course conditions but can roll the rock enough to SeeMore green jackets in the future.
KJ Choi -- Everything, and I mean everything, would have to right for Choi to win.
Andres Romero -- Intriguing game, intriguing possibilities.
Green Light
Tiger Woods -- The Alpha and the Omega. All major championship conversations begin with the No. 1 player in the world. Even after the surgical layoff still the one player to beat in the field. The knee is sound, but is the putter? The flatstick will make the difference for Tiger and the rest of the field against him.
Phil Mickelson -- Has shown the swagger of a major champion at times and at others the arsenal of a range king. Has two wins on the season but has not grabbed hold of the brass ring while Tiger was on the mend. Maybe having the best player on the planet in the field at the season's first major will get the juices flowing for Lefty. If not, what will?
Paul Casey -- A win (his first on the PGA TOUR) at Houston could be just what the long hitting Englishman needed to jump start his major championship career.
Geoff Ogilvy -- Aussie has two wins on the '09 season and a complete game. Can manage and play the game with anyone on the planet. All depends on the first round as Augusta. Much better playing in front than coming from behind.
Retief Goosen -- Has played well this season after rededicating himself. Still a threat with the flatstick and can still bring it at age 40.
There are other names that will find themselves on the first page or maybe even atop the leaderboard. Soren Hansen, Henrik Stenson and Robert Karlsson are just three of the Euro mix that could contend deep into the weekend.
Camillo Villegas, Jim Furyk and Stuart Appleby have demonstrated more than enough game and grit to get it done as well.
Augusta National, like all good real estate, is about location. Your location on the leaderboard is directly aligned with the location of your tee balls, approach shots and putts. Give yourself enough chances by being in the right location, then convert those opportunities and bingo, bango, bongo, you've won the first major of the season.
The name at the top of the leaderboard on Sunday at The Masters, if not Tiger Woods, will be notable for one thing. He will be the answer to the quiz question of who won the first major with Tiger Woods back in the field following knee surgery? At least the winner will have a green jacket to go along with it.