NFC belongs to the Rams

So your Christmas Eve was made when the Packers clinched a playoff berth, but then you realized that their possible 12-4 record might only be good for the second-to-last berth in the suddenly top-heavy NFC? I can sympathize. {INSERT_RELATED}

But that doesn't necessarily mean the Pack is any less likely to succeed this postseason than if they were, say, NFC Central Division champs (still a distinct possibility, to be sure). Of course, let's not get too far ahead of ourselves.

The NFC is the sole domain of the St. Louis Rams. Yes, now it can be told. With 70 points over the last two games, the Rams will become the first team to reach 500 in a season three times. Not only will they do so in three consecutive seasons, no other team has done it twice straight.

Before the Rams, however, are three other teams in the NFC pecking order. Theoretically, the Pack could overtake all four of them, earn NFC home-field advantage through January, and make a very strong case for another Super Bowl trip to New Orleans. Realistically? Probably somewhere in between.

1. St. Louis (12-2), (vs. Indy, vs. Atl): Two wins by St. Louis and the NFC title routes through Mizzou. The Rams are about as close to indomitable as it gets in a league with a weaker cast of stalwarts than "Making the Band." Kurt Warner gets picked off more than he's used to (18 INTs), but with a veritable stable of WR studs (Holt, Bruce, Hakim) and Ahman Green squared (Marshall Faulk) in the backfield, who's going to beat them? Oh yeah, suddenly their defense is ranked second in the NFC, to boot.. In Lambeau, the Pack have half a chance; on the St. Louis carpet, whew - I don't like envisioning it.

2. Chicago (11-3), (at Det, vs. Jax): We all know the drill - Green Bay has to win both while the Bears lose one (or split while Chicago is swept) to win the Central. Rookie QB Mike McMahon could give the Bears' D fits on the carpet (if he plays), but don't totally discount the Jags if Detroit succumbs. Only Jacksonville (32) and San Diego (14) have positive point-differentials among losing teams, and the Jags' have a better total than the Dolphins (20) and Jets (16), both of whom are 9-5.

But let's assume worst case: the Bears win out, likely giving them the No. 2 seed and a first-round bye. That means the 4/5 wild-card winner heads to Chicago, a place Brett Favre isn't terribly uncomfortable playing football. As for the "It's tough to beat a team three times" bit, you tell me: Who'd be more confident in Bears-Packers III?

3. Philadelphia (9-5), (vs. NYG, at TB): The Eagles' inability to score on 38 consecutive plays from the 1-yard line against Frisco last week may have cost the Pack a home playoff game. So, first off, thanks to Andy Reid. But don't be fooled about the Eagles. They've outscored opponents by 128 points, regardless, second only to the Rams (187) in the NFL. And their defense has allowed a league-low 174. They'll likely meet Tampa two weeks in a row (a la the Packers and Lions to close 1993), with the winner getting the Rams in the divisional round. If anyone can beat the Rams on the St. Louis rug, it's the road warrior Eagles (6-1 away from Philly). They lock down the No. 3 seed with one win or one Giants loss over the last two weeks.

4. San Francisco (11-3), (at Dal, at NO): The Niners are tied with Green Bay in conference record (7-3), so one loss in their last two shifts that tiebreaker to the Pack. Of course, the Packers would have to win out, as well. If not, and San Fran does host Mike Sherman's squad in an NFC wild-card game, it should be a doozie. Steve Mariucci's band might be the most fortunate team in the NFL outside of the Bears, though an improved defense has made a lot of its own luck lately. And with Garrison Hearst, Terrell Owens, and Jeff Garcia, the offensive weapons are certainly present. In the Packers' last three playoff games at the former Candlestick Park, they've won two and lost the other on the final play. A fourth could be similarly gut-churning.

5. Packers (10-4), (vs. Min, at NYG): Best case for the Pack would be for the Eagles to beat the Giants this weekend, thereby eliminating the defending NFC champs from playoff contention. They'll still get the Giants' best effort on the road in January, but if a division title is within Green Bay's grasp, I like their chances to stop an inconsistent Big Blue group that's playing purely for pride, not the postseason.

6. Tampa Bay (8-6), (vs. Bal, vs. Phi): Go figure - Tampa is going to fight its way into the playoffs again. Tony Dungy's Bucs face a murderous closing stretch (coming off a thrashing of the Saints last week), but both games are at home. A Tampa win and an Atlanta loss this week (at Miami) clinches the last NFC playoff spot. They'd then have to head to Philly (the one matchup that appears to be a lock) and, if they prevail, St. Louis after that.

To recap, the Packers have a chance. Running a three-game road gauntlet en route to the Super Bowl is less likely than a Brewers' World Series run in '02. But if Green Bay can sneak into the No. 2 or 4 seed in the NFC, its chances of reaching the NFC title game increase in kind.