Lately, opposing defenses have been jumping all over quarterback Aaron Rodgers and the Packers defense. And the only way to stop the jumping is:
A scheme change?
Better play-calling?
More intensity?
How about all the above?
While you're chewing on those questions, here's a fantasy owner's guide to Week 10 in the National Football League.
Good luck.
WEEK 10 PLAYER WATCH
Josh Freeman, Tampa Bay quarterback: Not only did the rookie lead his creamsicle-clad team to its first victory of the season in his first ever start, but he ripped apart the Packers defense as if they were a high school squad.
This week, Freeman and his Bucs travel to Miami to take on a Dolphins team allowing 246.9 passing yards per game. The Dolphins' offense prefers to run the football and the Buccaneers defense is allowing an average of 163.4 rushing yards per game. If the Dolphins stick to their normal game plan of pounding it on the ground, Freeman may be going airborne a lot this week.
Chris Johnson, Tennessee running back: Johnson is one of the hottest running backs in fantasy right now with 363 rushing yards and four touchdowns in the Titans' last two games - both victories. With the streaking Titans playing at home against Buffalo and the Bills' last-ranked run defense trying to stop perhaps the top-rated runner for Week 10, Johnson is almost a must-start.
Larry Fitzgerald, Arizona wide receiver: By now, fantasy owners know that Fitzgerald is the real deal. With that comes the additional pressure of performing at an even higher level whenever he comes off a big week, and he's coming off a 123-yard performance with two touchdowns against the Bears. The pressure will be high this week as the Cardinals return home to play Seattle, a team against which Fitzgerald, traditionally, has had success, posting career averages of 6.5 receptions, 87.6 yards, and almost 1 touchdown per game. Coincidentally, his next best performance this season came against the Seahawks in Week 6 when he caught 13 passes for 100 yards, with one touchdown.
FANTASY HEROES AND VILLAINS
Super Mario Brothers style
With his red cap and blue suspenders video game character Mario has been an icon since first appearing in the Arcade game Donkey Kong in 1981. Nearly 30 years and a wheelbarrow full of game appearances later, Mario teams up with brother Luigi and Toad to headline this week's edition of fantasy heroes and villains.
Heroes
Mario: Brett Favre, Minnesota quarterback -- A legend; a vigilante; the face of the game... Brett Favre is to the NFL what Mario is to the video game world. And like Mario's impact on the video game world, it sometimes seems like the NFL without Favre would be bland and boring; something that Mr. Favre won't be this week against the Lions, coming off a bye week and in the Metrodome. Over his last three games, Favre has seven touchdowns passes and is averaging 285. The Lions, meanwhile, rank 31st in passing touchdowns allowed (19) and passing yards allowed (2105). Start Favre if you have him; he's bound to have a monstrous day throwing the ball against the weak Detroit defense.
Luigi: Ray Rice, Baltimore running back -- During the Ravens' last meeting against the Browns, Willis McGahee rushed for 67 yards and scored two touchdowns while Rice rushed for 48 and scored once. Since then, the Ravens offense has taken after the Super Mario Galaxy game; you know, the one where Luigi jumps higher than Mario. This week, Rice will gallop and leap through and over a Browns defense ranked 31st against the run on Monday Night Football. And for the record, Mr. McGahee has rushed for just 11 yards on 15 rushes since the last meeting, over seven weeks ago. It's time for this Luigi to shine!
Toad: Wes Welker, New England wide receiver -- At 5-foot-9 and 185-pounds, Welker is one of the smallest wide receivers in the game today, and like Toad in Mario's world, he's found in the background of the red, white and blue stars of the New England offense. Over the past three weeks, Welker has been playing like he's flying through the levels of Wario's Woods, averaging almost 10 receptions, 113 yards and one touchdown per game. This week, the Patriots will be on the road against a Colts defense allowing a league-low 9.3 yards per catch, which, oddly enough, plays in to Welker's favor. Much like the past three games, Welker will get plenty of short Tom Brady passes thrown his way, but this time he won't be lost in the background. He'll be a super-sized Toad in Week 10.
Villains
Bowser: Matt Ryan, Atlanta quarterback -- Like Bowser and his flying spikes in World 8-4, Ryan's attack in recent weeks has been subpar. Over the last three games, Ryan has averaged thrown for just 207 yards per with six interceptions and just four touchdowns. Now that Michael Turner has found his groove again (317 rushing yards, and 3 touchdowns in the last two weeks), paired with the Panthers 23rd ranking in rushing yards allowed per game this season (122.1) Ryan is a definite villain for Week 10. Please sit him, especially if you have Mario (Brett Favre) on your bench. His spikes will hurt no one but himself.
Koopa Troupa: Kevin Smith, Detroit running back -- Get ready to put Mr. Smith back into his shell on the bench as he's averaging a scant 3.3 yards per carry. On the road against a Vikings defense allowing just 94.8 rushing yards per game and a gimpy Calvin Johnson, you get turtle-like numbers. Sure, Smith rushed for 83 yards when the Lions hosted Minnesota in Week 2, but it took him 24 carries to do so, something that he won't see in Week 10 against one of hottest, high-scoring teams in the NFL. The Vikings' defense is going to bounce on him like Mario bounces off Koopa's head all you have to do is hide him on your bench.
Goomba: Steve Smith, Carolina wide receiver -- Like Welker, Smith is 5-9, 185. Unlike Welker, Smith won't be seeing a slew of Jake Delhomme ducks falling from the sky into his arms. Yes, Smith did record his best game of the season against the Falcons in Week 2. However, with how well the Panthers have been running the football the last few weeks coupled with the fact that Smith hasn't recorded a 100-yard game at home all season all but guarantees that Smith will be like the Goombas after Mario gets done with them in Level 1; fantasy mush. It's almost impossible to sit Smith, especially in flex or three wide receiver leagues, but if you have better options with better match-ups don't be afraid to let him warm your fantasy bench.
RapidDraft.com writers Eric Huber, Matt Schauf, and Frank Mazzola answer a few burning questions heading into Week 10.
Will Tom Brady and Randy Moss continue their scoring prowess against the Colts? Explain.
Huber: No. Brady will put up decent yardage numbers and may throw a few touchdowns if the Colts offense gets on track, but Moss won't explode for 100-plus yards, and he won't catch a long touchdown like his 71-yarder last week. Why? The Colts are allowing an average of 9.3 yards per catch and, in case nobody noticed, last week Andre Johnson had to catch 10 balls to get his 103 yards, something that Moss is not going to do with possession receiver Wes Welker in the lineup.
Schauf: Moss has yet to produce 100 yards or a touchdown in consecutive games, so fantasy owners haven't been able to count on consistent production from arguably the league's most talented wideout. Even last week, nearly half of his 147 yards and his touchdown came on one 71-yard play. Brady, meanwhile, loaded up with nine of his 16 touchdown passes to date against the struggling defenses of Tennessee and Tampa Bay. The Colts, for their part, have not let any quarterback throw more than one touchdown pass in a game this season. The only two opponents who reached 300 yards, Kurt Warner and Matt Schaub, logged at least 43 attempts and each tossed two picks. Finally, Indy has allowed just one touchdown pass all year to a wideout. Moss and Wes Welker should each catch a fair number of passes by virtue of the Colts' defensive scheme, which allows shorter completions while avoiding big plays, but don't look for a ton of passing scores in this one. Of course, Moss and Brady are must-start fantasy guys unless you have really strong alternatives. Just don't count on big numbers this week.
Mazzola: Brady and Moss have finally gotten on the same page again and the Colts won't be the team to shut them down. Expect the fireworks to continue.
In the showdown at Bank of America Field this week, who is the better fantasy start -- Michael Turner or DeAngelo Williams?
Huber: With the way that Williams has been running away from defenses recently, it's hard to go against him, but Turner has been one step ahead of the Panthers runner and has been doing it without over-carrying the football. In each of the past two weeks, Turner has recorded 150+ yards on the ground, but has also averaged 7.6 yards per carry. Ultimately, I say don't bench either runner, but if you have to choose one or the other take Turner, even if it's just by a sliver.
Schauf: Turner is the better fantasy starter because he's facing a weaker defense and is part of a better offense. That means better potential for scoring opportunities. Both are strong fantasy options right now, though, who should start for pretty much everyone regardless of matchup.
Mazzola: While both are excellent starts, the facts that Carolina just lost Thomas Davis for the year and that Turner doesn't split carries with anyone makes him the guy to have in this contest.
Has Roy Williams re-captured his No. 1 receiver role in Dallas? What can fantasy owners expect from him this week against the Packers?
Huber: On the field, perhaps, but not in the fantasy football world. Miles Austin has been way too good since his bust-out performance against the Chiefs, and Williams has yet to record a 100-yard game since arriving in Dallas. As for this week against the Packers, if the defense places added attention on Miles Austin like the Eagles did, then look for Williams to possibly match his five-catch, 75-yard performance he recorded last week. If not, then don't be surprised if Williams only gets half as many looks as Tony Romo gave him against Philadelphia.
Schauf: Williams never had the No. 1 role to begin with, really. He has to produce for much more than one game to prove himself to me. Look for three or four catches for maybe 50 yards, especially now that Williams has reminded Green Bay defensive coordinator Dom Capers that he is still alive.
Mazzola: No, I think Miles Austin is still the guy in Dallas. He received full-on, No. 1 receiver coverage from the Eagles (double teams all night) and, though he only caught one pass, it was for a long score (just a like a number one should).
Name your best and bust picks for Week 10 (QB, RB, WR, TE).
Huber: QB -- Best: Kurt Warner, Bust: Jay Cutler RB -- Best: Pierre Thomas, Bust: Kevin Smith WR - Best: Larry Fitzgerald, Bust: Dwayne Bowe TE - Best: Antonio Gates, Bust: Brent Celek
Schauf: QB -- Best: Drew Brees, Bust: Matt Ryan RB -- Best: Ray Rice, Bust: Kevin Smith WR -- Best: Larry Fitzgerald, Bust: Mike Sims-Walker TE -- Best: Antonio Gates, Bust: Greg Olsen
Mazzola: QB -- Best: Drew Brees, Bust: Matt Cassel RB -- Best: Michael Turner, Bust: Matt Forte WR -- Best: Brandon Marshall, Bust: Chad Ochocinco TE -- Best: Dallas Clark, Bust: Kellen Winslow Jr
GAME 9 FANTASY BREAKDOWN -- DALLAS VS. GREEN BAY
Last week, Aaron Rodgers was sacked six times by a Buccaneers defense that had recorded just 11 sacks going in to the game. For the season the Packers quarterback has been sacked 37 times. When the Cowboys rushed in to Green Bay to steal away a 27-16 victory last September, they sacked Mr. Rodgers five times. Ugh. Forget about season sack records, fantasy owners could see a game record this week at legendary Lambeau Field.
As for the fantasy aspect of the game; here's a quick breakdown by position of who has the advantage.
Quarterback: Tony Romo vs. Aaron Rodgers
Once upon a time, a fella named Dorsett bashed Burlington native Tony Romo for the Cowboys early season slumping. I wonder what he has to say now that the Cowboys are sitting atop of the NFC East at 5-3, and Romo has thrown for 300-plus yards in three of his last four games. This week, Romo heads back to his home state to take on a Packers defense that allowed rookie Josh Freeman throw three touchdowns in an unlikely Tamp victory. His opponent is Aaron Rodgers, who is playing out of his fantasy mind week in and week out, and is on pace to finish the season with 4,500 passing yards, 32 touchdown passes, and an NFL-record 74 sacks. Huh? Well, unless your league subtracts points for sacks, you have nothing to worry about, especially if Rodgers continues to average 282 passing yards and 2 touchdowns per week. Remember, this is a fantasy football breakdown. Advantage: Rodgers.
Running back: Marion Barber III vs. Ryan Grant
Once upon a time, a guy named Barber III averaged 4.8 yards per carry and scored 24 touchdowns in two consecutive seasons combined. That was the bruising Cowboy runner of 2006 and 2007. The new banged-up Barber III has averaged just 3.9 yards per carry in 22 games since the start of the 2008 season, and has averaged 3.7 yards per carry since returning from a quadriceps injury in Week 4. The Cowboys as a team have averaged less than four yards per carry in three of their last five games. On the flip-side, the Packers Ryan Grant has been surprisingly consistent week in and week out this season, and is averaging 4.2 yards per carry. And with the problems on the Packers offensive line Grant could see an increase in touches this week to keep the potent Cowboys offense off the field. Advantage: Grant.
Wide Receiver: Williams, Austin and Crayton vs. Jennings, Driver, and Jones
Once upon a time, Miles Austin was considered a mere afterthought and Donald Driver was considered a deteriorating talent at wide receiver. Now both Austin and Driver are their team's leading receivers and have become weekly must-starts. Alongside Austin is Roy Williams, who is finally starting to come around. n the slot is Patrick Crayton, who will produce when called upon. Lining up with Driver are Greg Jennings is James Jones. Jennings continues to disappoint and is currently on pace to score just four touchdowns; less than half of his 2008 total. Jones is coming off a 100-plus yard game against the Buccaneers and has scored three touchdowns in the last four games. This one is almost too close to call. Advantage: Jennings, Driver, and Jones.
Tight End: Jason Witten vs. Donald Lee
Once upon a time Jason Witten's fantasy numbers weren't deplorable, but then again, his competition this week, Mr. Lee, has never had fantasy numbers that weren't deplorable. And while Witten's reception numbers are right on pace, his 8.9 yards per catch number explains why his overall production has been so down this season. Nevertheless there is no denying that he clearly is a far better play than the Packers Donald. Advantage: Witten.
