Week 3 of the National Football League season is upon us, and there is plenty to talk about in addition to the Brett Favre-Packers countdown. From Mike Singletary's newfound attitude in San Francisco (which seems to be working better than Tony Dorsett‘s mouth), to the New York Jets not only taking down King Brady, but keeping him and the Pats' offense out of the end zone. And then, of course, you can't forget about the Manning brothers, who once again are showing the NFL world that they are the best at calling plays and winning football games.
As for fantasy football...
Well, all you have to do is read this column and visit the RapidDraft.com blogs every week, and I guarantee you will be champion someday. I hope you enjoy the new, revised version of the weekly forecast packed with even more than ever before.
Week 3 Player Watch
Matt Schaub: After laying an egg at home in Week 1 against the Jets, only to slice and dice through the Titans' defense on the road in Week 2, Schaub returns home this week as the Texans will host what looks like is going to be a very bad Jaguars team (particularly on defense). The question is which quarterback will show up? Will it be the 166-yard, zero-touchdown disappointment or the 357-yard, four-touchdown fantasy wonder man? How about somewhere in between?
Chris Johnson: Fantasy owners saw first-hand what Johnson is capable of on any given Sunday, and clearly with how badly the defense played last week it looks as though Johnson will have no problems getting plenty of touches the rest of the way. This week, Johnson will face a Jets defense that hasn't allowed a touchdown in 2009, and it's not like they've played two sluggish offenses. In Week 1, the Jets went to Houston and shut down a Texans offense that later scored four touchdowns last week against the Titans on the road. Last week, the gang green and white shut down fantasy immortal Tom Brady and the Pats high-powered offense. Will Johnson be shutdown, or will he break the Jets' latest defensive trend?
Greg Jennings: Fantasy owners probably never expected a donut from Jennings, especially because he was matched against a Bengals defense that allowed 23 touchdowns through the air last season. To be fair, though, Jennings did have his opportunities in Week 2, but dropped a few catchable passes. This week, the Packers travel to St Louis to face a Rams defense that has already allowed an average of 258 passing yards per game in 2009. And although they held their own against the Redskins last week, giving up just three field goals, in Week 1 against the Seahawks they didn't fair as well and allowed three passing touchdowns. I expect no donuts this week from Jennings, unless of course they‘re the second digit behind a two (20), three (30) or four (40).
Obvious, Dubious, and Hideous Starts
Hopefully, this new approach to this part of the forecast is the right one.
Kansas City vs. Philadelphia
Obvious -- Brent Celek, Philadelphia defense, Lesean McCoy
Dubious -- Matt Cassel, Kevin Kolb, Dwayne Bowe, Brian Westbrook (Inj), Desean Jackson (inj)
Hideous -- Larry Johnson, Mark Bradley, Kevin Curtis
Green Bay vs. St Louis -- See game breakdown.
San Francisco vs. Minnesota
Obvious -- Adrian Peterson, Vernon Davis, Minnesota DST, Isaac Bruce
Dubious -- Brett Favre, Shaun Hill, San Francisco DST, Percy Harvin
Hideous -- Bernard Berrian, Frank Gore, Josh Morgan
Cleveland vs. Baltimore
Obvious -- Braylon Edwards, Willis McGahee, Ray Rice, Derrick Mason, Baltimore defense
Dubious -- Brady Quinn, Joe Flacco, Mark Clayton
Hideous -- Jamal Lewis, Cleveland defense
NY Giants vs. Tampa Bay
Obvious -- Cadillac Williams, Kellen Winslow Jr, Eli Manning, Steve Smith, Brandon Jacobs, Derrick Ward
Dubious -- Ahmad Bradshaw, Mario Manningham, NY Giants defense
Hideous -- Antonio Bryant, Mark Clayton, Tampa Bay defense
Jacksonville vs. Houston
Obvious -- Maurice Jones-Drew, David Garrard, Torry Holt, Matt Schaub, Steve Slaton, Andre Johnson (lock), Owen Daniels
Dubious -- Mike Walker, Kevin Walter, Jacksonville DST
Hideous -- Houston defense
Tennessee vs. NY Jets
Obvious -- Thomas Jones, Dustin Keller, NY Jets defense, Leon Washington
Dubious -- Chris Johnson, Jerricho Cotchery, Mark Sanchez
Hideous -- Tennessee defense, Justin Gage
Atlanta vs. New England
Obvious -- Matt Ryan, Tony Gonzalez, Roddy White, Tom Brady, Randy Moss
Dubious -- Michael Turner, New England defense, Wes Welker, Marty Booker
Hideous -- Atlanta defense, Ben Watson
Washington vs. Detroit
Obvious -- Clinton Portis, Santana Moss, Chris Cooley, Kevin Smith, Calvin Johnson
Dubious -- Jason Campbell, Washington defense, Ladell Betts
Hideous -- Matthew Stafford, Bryant Johnson, Detroit defense
Chicago vs. Seattle
Obvious -- Matt Forte, Jay Cutler, TJ Houshmandzadeh, Johnny Knox, John Carlson, Greg Olsen
Dubious -- Nate Burleson, Seneca Wallace, Earl Bennett, Chicago defense
Hideous -- Julius Jones, Matt Hasselbeck, Seattle defense
New Orleans vs. Buffalo
Obvious -- Drew Brees, Marques Colston, Jeremy Shockey, Terrell Owens, Lee Evans, Trent Edwards
Dubious -- Fred Jackson, Reggie Bush, Mike Bell, Lance Moore
Hideous -- Pierre Thomas, Buffalo defense, New Orleans defense
Miami vs. San Diego
Obvious -- Philip Rivers, Darren Sproles, Vincent Jackson, Antonio Gates, Ronnie Brown
Dubious -- San Diego defense, Ladainian Tomlinson, Davone Bess, Chad Pennington
Hideous -- Ted Ginn Jr, Chris Chambers, Miami defense
Pittsburgh vs. Cincinnati
Obvious -- Carson Palmer, Ben Roethlisberger, Santonio Holmes, Chad Ochocinco, Hines Ward, Rashard Mendenhall
Dubious -- Cedric Benson, Willie Parker, Mewelde Moore, Laveranues Coles, Pittsburgh defense
Hideous -- Chris Henry, Heath Miller, Cincinnati defense
Denver vs. Oakland
Obvious -- Darren McFadden, Eddie Royal
Dubious -- Brandon Marshall, Louis Murphy, Zach Miller, Denver defense, Correll Buckhalter, Knowshon Moreno, Michael Bush
Hideous -- JaMarcus Russell, Oakland defense
Indianapolis vs. Arizona
Obvious -- Peyton Manning, Kurt Warner, Reggie Wayne, Larry Fitzgerald, Dallas Clark, Tim Hightower, Steve Breaston
Dubious -- Anquan Boldin, Pierre Garcon, Chris Wells, Joseph Addai,
Hideous -- Austin Collie, Donald Brown, Indianapolis defense, Arizona defense
Carolina vs. Dallas
Obvious -- Tony Romo, Jason Witten, Steve Smith, DeAngelo Williams
Dubious -- Dallas defense, Felix Jones, Muhsin Muhammad, Tashard Choice
Hideous -- Carolina defense, Jonathan Stewart
2) Tampa Bay (33.5) and Carolina (33.0) trail just Detroit (36.0) for the early 2009 lead in points allowed. In 2008, both clubs finished in the top 12 overall for the lowest amount of points allowed per game. The winds have definitely shifted in those two cities.
3) The Giants are allowing a league high 6.7 yards per carry and have already allowed 4 rushing touchdowns in just two weeks.
Individual Defensive Player Insight
If you're looking for a highly productive waiver player in the IDP world, then look no further than Lions LB Larry Foote. Yes, Detroit's defense is awful as a unit, but Foote very quietly has recorded 19 total tackles (14 solos), 1 sack, and has deflected a pass in the first two weeks. And if teams continue to focus on plowing on the ground against the winless Lions, Foote will continue to put up huge tackle numbers.
Here are a few others to watch
:
DB Kenny Phillips -- The Giants' secondary is severely depleted so Phillips is going to be a prime playmaker moving forward. He intercepted two Tony Romo passes on Sunday night.
LB Scott Shanle -- Shanle could possibly be the Saints best cover linebacker, which should benefit fantasy owners, especially when opposing teams are battling back using their tight ends and slot receivers. He has intercepted a pass in each of the first two weeks.
DE Ray Edwards -- Overlooked due to the presence of Jared Allen and Kevin and Pat Williams, Edwards should be available in most leagues. He has recorded at least 6 total tackles in each week and has a total of 1.5 sacks thus far for the season.
Expert Questions
RapidDraft writers Eric Huber, Matt Schauf, and Frank Mazzola put their knowledge to the test and give you their insight on four burning questions heading in to Week 3:
Were Tom Brady's struggles last week against the Jets due to just a bad performance, or flat out great defense? What can fantasy owners expect this week out of No. 12?
Schauf: The Jets D is for real, but the Patriots' passing game certainly isn't operating at its 2007 clip (which would be extremely hard to do). I'm not taking Brady out of the lineup any time soon, though, especially against an Atlanta D that yielded 308 yards to Jake Delhomme last week and let Chad Pennington complete 72 percent of his throws in Week 1.
Huber: Brady's struggles were due in large part to the Jets perfect game-planning yet again. This week Brady should rebound a bit as the Pats are at home against an Atlanta defense that will bend a little more against the pass.
Mazzola: Both were a factor. Brady is still Brady and favorite target Randy Moss won't be covered by Darrelle Revis every week. Expect him to rebound nicely against Atlanta this week.
Who has been the most impressive overall fantasy player through the first two weeks of the season?
Schauf: This has to be Fred Jackson. Obviously, the numbers Drew Brees has put up have been ridiculous, and Joe Flacco has been a somewhat surprising stud as well. Jackson, though, is the No. 2 back on a team that was supposed to have serious blocking issues. All he's done so far is top 100 total yards in each game and catch 11 passes.
Huber: Hands down, Steve Smith of the New York Giants. Smith co-leads (Randy Moss) all NFL receivers with 16 receptions, and has been a PPR owner's dream. He may have even won a few games on Sunday night for fantasy owners as well.
Mazzola: In my mind, Fred Jackson has been the most impressive. Everyone knew he would be a placeholder for Marshawn Lynch until the latter returned from suspension, but few anticipated he would average 110 rushing yards a game. He has played well enough to have a big role even when Lynch returns..
Are Mario Manningham and Johnny Knox the real deal? Are you starting either of them this week?
Huber: Both Manningham and Knox provide their quarterbacks with big play ability, but I believe it's too early to officially tell for sure if they can be reliable on a week-to-week basis. If I had to start one this week I would probably lean towards Manningham only because he has shown that he can be a prime target, whereas Knox has only shown glimpses.
Schauf: As far as being quality players, yes, they are for real. Should we expect Week 2 numbers to become the norm for either? No. Manningham more than tripled his number of looks from Week 1 on Sunday night, in a game where Eli Manning threw more passes than he did on all but one occasion in 2008. He won't often put it up 35 or more times, and Steve Smith will remain the primary target. Manningham certainly looks like the No. 2 option, though.
As for Knox, he has opportunity in a corps with no established star receivers and a quarterback who hasn't had time to develop bonds to certain players because it's his first year with the team. Knox will have some good outings because he's talented, but rookie receivers are always inconsistent. Expectations should be tempered.
Mazzola: I'd lean more towards Manningham than Knox. Eli Manning loves the guy, there's a real need for someone to establish themselves as Big Blue's top option and Manningham could easily become that guy. Knox will probably be more inconsistent.
Name your "best" and "bust" picks at each position (QB, RB, WR, TE).
Huber: QB -- Best: Peyton Manning, Bust: Kyle Orton RB -- Best: Willis McGahee, Bust: Cedric Benson WR -- Best: Vincent Jackson, Bust: Justin Gage TE -- Best: Greg Olsen, Bust: Heath Miller
Schauf: QB -- Best: Drew Brees, Bust: Kurt Warner RB -- Best: Maurice Jones-Drew, Bust - Cedric Benson WR -- Best: Randy Moss, Bust: Brandon Marshall TE -- Best: Antonio Gates, Bust: Kellen Davis
Mazzola: QB -- Drew Brees, Bust: Brady Quinn RB -- Best: Maurice Jones-Drew, Bust: Carnell Williams WR -- Andre Johnson, Bust: Justin Gage TE -- Best: Jason Witten, Bust: Tony Scheffler
Game 3 Fantasy Breakdown: Green Bay vs. St Louis
In 2007, the Packers went to the Edward Jones Dome and steamrolled the Rams by a 33-14 margin. It was game that featured a 46-yard rumble by Rams star Steven Jackson, a 44-yard bomb from Brett Favre to Greg Jennings and four Mason Crosby field goals. So, what's in store this time around? With the way both of these teams have been playing this season who knows. Here's a breakdown, though, of who has the fantasy advantage at each position.
Quarterback -- Aaron Rodgers vs. Marc Bulger
Uncertainty lingers for both quarterbacks with offensive line woes a plenty. This is much closer of a match-up than at the beginning of the season, but the clear edge here goes to Rodgers. Rodgers has great weapons and he's is in his prime, while the aging Bulger has Steven Jackson, and after seeing Donnie Avery last week, that's pretty much it. Advantage: Rodgers.
Running back -- Ryan Grant vs. Steven Jackson Grant has been a bit of an anomaly thus far in that he's currently on pace for one third fewer yards but four times more touchdowns than what fantasy owners saw from him in 2008. Jackson, on the other hand, is right around his rushing average from a year ago and once again seems to lack the touchdown prowess. On paper, Grant's touchdown production offsets Jackson's yardage domination, but on the field there's no comparing the two. And with the way the Packers defense made Cedric Benson look like Adrian Peterson last week, I can't go against Mr. Jackson here. Advantage: Jackson.
Wide Receiver -- Greg Jennings and Donald Driver vs. Laurent Robinson and Donnie Avery
Last week, both Greg Jennings and Donnie Avery struggled and were among the worst fantasy performers. I take that back -- they were the worst, as both combined for one reception and four yards. Meanwhile, Donald Driver and Laurent Robinson picked up the slack and combined for 11 receptions, 153 yards, and two touchdowns. I guarantee Jennings will rebound and Driver will be productive, however I can't say the same about Avery and it appears Robinson has emerged as the Rams prime target. Since there is uncertainty with Avery, I have to go with the Packers wideouts here; as if there was any doubt. Advantage: Jennings and Driver.
Tight End -- Jermichael Finley vs. Randy McMichael
This breakdown wouldn't be complete without this Jermichael-McMichael fantasy showdown. Finley is one catch away from tying his rookie output of six, while Randy is on pace for the title of worst NFL starting tight end. From a talent standpoint, there's no comparison; it's the Packers young potential star hands down. Advantage: Finley.
2009 NFL Defensive Ranks
Green Bay -- RushYards/Game: 18th. PassYards/Game: 15th. Points/Game: 19th.
St Louis -- RushYards/Game: 25th. PassYards/Game: 25th. Points/Game: 14th.
Enjoy the Packers-Rams game and any other NFL games that you decide to tune in to this week. Good luck.
