It seems like a foregone conclusion that the Milwaukee Brewers will start dumping assets between now and the 3 p.m. non-waiver trade deadline on July 31, but honestly, it doesn’t seem like the right idea.
In a couple seasons, I have a feeling 2013 will look like an aberration, an injury-plagued disaster no one expected but one that wasn’t repeated.
As of today, 10 different pitchers have started a game for the Brewers. Another eight have thrown pitches in relief. A total of 19 different position players have come to the plate for the Brewers as well, including six who made their major league debut this season.
Just like the 2011 season couldn’t have been repeated when five guys made 155 starts, this season and its rash of injuries won’t be repeated, either. It’s just the law of averages.
That’s why general manager Doug Melvin and owner Mark Attanasio just need to grin and bear it for the rest of this season.
I can’t see a team offering up premier prospects at either corner infield spot, or major-league ready young arms, for any of the Brewers veterans on the roster.
Aramis Ramirez: The 35-year-old third baseman has cooled off since returning from injury, and still isn’t playing regularly. He admitted his knee won’t be fully healed until the offseason, meaning any team willing to deal for him must not only be prepared to pay him $16 million next year, but sit him occasionally this year.
Rickie Weeks: The second baseman is streaking, hitting .333 since May 22nd, but he’ll be 31 in September and is owed $11 million next season. He also has an $11.5 option in 2015 that vests if he makes 1,200 plate appearances through the rest of this year and next year and, though unlikely, still factors into any decision another team may make in trading for him as he’ll play every day.
Norichika Aoki: It doesn’t make much sense to move the 31-year-old, as he’s been a steal at $1.2 million this year and has provided stability at the top of the order and defensively in right field. The Brewers have a $1.5 million team option for next year, so if they feel one of the young outfielders will be ready perhaps they could get a decent prospect in return.
Yovani Gallardo: This is the guy Melvin will likely get the most calls on, as the 27-year-old is having a down year and is under contract through 2015 (if the team picks up a $13 million option). It’s an affordable contract for a player who is on track for his fifth straight season of 30 or more starts. Gallardo, though solid, isn’t the top-end starter that brings in the type of haul the Brewers have given up in the past for C.C. Sabathia and Zack Greinke, and frankly it’s just too early to move him.
Kyle Lohse: The right-hander turns 35 in October and is owed $22 million over the next two years. No one wanted him at this price until the Brewers rescued him on March 25 – just a week before Opening Day. He’s been good, but he’s also dealt with elbow inflammation.
The one part of the team that may be broken up has been the strongest – the bullpen. Burke Badenhop and John Axford are still under control in arbitration, and lefty Tom Gorzelanny has one year left on his contract for $2.95 million. Jim Henderson won't be a free agent until 2019. Lefty veteran Michael Gonzalez is a free agent at the end of the year, as is Francisco Rodriguez.
It makes sense, both fiscally and for prospect development, to move some of those arms and let young guys cut their teeth in a lost season, but none of the relievers are going to bring in a tremendous haul.
One or more of these guys will probably be in different uniforms by August.
Despite the fact that the Brewers owe $49.25 million to just Gallardo, Ramirez, Weeks and Lohse in 2014 there is no financial reason to trade them at this point, either.
Corey Hart’s $10 million comes off the books just as Ryan Braun’s raise to that number kicks in.
Aoki, catcher Jonathan Lucroy ($2 million) and centerfielder Carlos Gomez ($7 million) all have manageable deals.
With a (presumably) healthy Ramirez and Braun in 2014, the Brewers can afford to bring up Hunter Morris to replace Hart and bury him in the lineup without any pressure to produce. The starting rotation will once again have questions, but the team should enter 2014 with a payroll around $80 million, affording the ability to sign another bridge arm (or two) if need be while the youngsters mature.
This season has been frustrating, no doubt. It's worn on the player’s faces and on manager Ron Roenicke’s. I hear it in their voices. Attanasio sees it with the empty seats at Miller Park. But unless some team ponies up not only the dollars, but the prospects, to take on some of these veterans for not only this year, but next year – there’s no reason for Melvin to move them. Heck, even if he wanted to no one might want them (yet).
You’ll just have to live with what you’ve got now, wash your hands in October, and expect a move back toward the average in 2014 – which means an above-.500 team competing for a postseason appearance.
Jim Owczarski is an award-winning sports journalist and comes to Milwaukee by way of the Chicago Sun-Times Media Network.
A three-year Wisconsin resident who has considered Milwaukee a second home for the better part of seven years, he brings to the market experience covering nearly all major and college sports.
To this point in his career, he has been awarded six national Associated Press Sports Editors awards for investigative reporting, feature writing, breaking news and projects. He is also a four-time nominee for the prestigious Peter J. Lisagor Awards for Exemplary Journalism, presented by the Chicago Headline Club, and is a two-time winner for Best Sports Story. He has also won numerous other Illinois Press Association, Illinois Associated Press and Northern Illinois Newspaper Association awards.
Jim's career started in earnest as a North Central College (Naperville, Ill.) senior in 2002 when he received a Richter Fellowship to cover the Chicago White Sox in spring training. He was hired by the Naperville Sun in 2003 and moved on to the Aurora Beacon News in 2007 before joining OnMilwaukee.com.
In that time, he has covered the events, news and personalities that make up the PGA Tour, LPGA Tour, Major League Baseball, the National Football League, the National Hockey League, NCAA football, baseball and men's and women's basketball as well as boxing, mixed martial arts and various U.S. Olympic teams.
Golf aficionados who venture into Illinois have also read Jim in GOLF Chicago Magazine as well as the Chicago District Golfer and Illinois Golfer magazines.