A seven-game series seems like a long time.
That is, unless your entire season and the hopes of 3 million plus are on the line. The Brewers took a sucker-punch to the gut Monday night at Miller Park, leaving the faithful as confused as Antonio Cromartie on Father's Day.
As Monday night's game wore on, so many fans left early it reminded you of the 2002 season by the 8th inning. It was hard to blame anyone for bailing. After Kameron Loe gave up six straight hits, Brewers fans gave up hope.
The No. 1 problem for the Brewers is staring them right back in the face; a problem that has plagued them for the last two years. In October, Milwaukee starting pitching from anyone not named "Gallardo" has been downright awful.
The numbers:
ER = Earned runs
IP = Innings pitched
NLDS vs. Arizona:
Game 1: Yovani Gallardo: 1 ER in 8 IP
Game 2: Zack Greinke: 4 ER in 5 IP
Game 3: Shaun Marcum: 7 ER in 4 2/3 IP
Game 4: Randy Wolf: 7 ER in 3 IP
Game 5: Yovani Gallardo: 1 ER in 6 IP
NLCS vs. St. Louis:
Game 1: Zack Greinke: 6 ER in 6 IP
Game 2: Shaun Marcum: 5 ER in 4 IP
Doing the math, Brewers starters this postseason have an ERA of 9.73. If you take Gallardo out of the mix, that ERA swells to 11.51.
Unless that improves dramatically and immediately, the Brewers will have played their last game at Miller Park this season.
In Wednesday's NLCS Game 3, Gallardo will mercifully give Brewers fans a respite from the likes of Marcum (2-2, 5.17 ERA in September) and Wolf (5.34 ERA in 5 starts vs. St. Louis this season). That's the good news.
The bad news is that the Cardinals are countering with veteran Chris Carpenter, coming off a complete game 3-hit shutout of the Phillies in the decisive Game 5 of their NLDS series. In 11 playoff starts Carpenter is 6-2 with a 2.94 ERA, and posted a 3-0 record with a 2.15 ERA in seven September starts to end this season.
The formula for the Brewers is both simple and daunting.
The starting pitching has to get better, and do so instantly. Gallardo has been phenomenal as the Brewers October ace, but he cannot do it by himself. Compounding matters is Gallardo's struggles against the Cardinals, his 1-7 record with a 5.66 ERA in 11 career starts is evidence of that.
Greinke has been adequate, but adequate won't win consistently in October. Wolf has only had one start in October as a Brewer, but he was abysmal in it. Moreover, in the three games he has pitched in the postseason lifetime, his ERA of 9.00 in 12 innings doesn't give Brewers fans much optimism.
As for Marcum, one gets the sense that something with him just isn't right. When he makes mistakes, they are the ones that wind up in the bleachers. I also didn't help that centerfielder Nyjer Morgan failed to come up with a pair of fly balls in the Cardinals two-run third inning Monday night, but Marcum put the Brewers in a 2-run hole before his teammates even came to bat.
In all, Marcum has surrendered 30 runs in his last 33 innings pitched, a startling number that cannot be ignored. Manager Ron Roenicke said after Monday's game that he plans to stick with Marcum in Game 6 rather than replace him with Chris Narveson. Narveson has only given up 2 earned runs in 15 innings pitched this season against St. Louis, but was hit hard in his last four starts of the regular season.
What is simple about the Brewers plight is that they just have to play better than they did in Game 2. That is elementary. What is not elementary are the difficult decisions Roenicke has to make. He has already shown that the postseason is a whole new ballgame by his starting of Jerry Hairston, Jr. at third base after Casey McGehee struggled the last five months of the season. Hairston has been marvelous offensively and defensively since his insertion at the hot corner, and the Brewers have also seen Yuniesky Bentancourt's bat come to life in October, as well.
Prince Fielder and Ryan Braun have both shown a penchant for clutch play, but you can only ride your superstars for so long. Rickie Weeks has shown some signs of returning to form, and even Carlos Gomez has contributed both offensively and defensively after being maligned by fans and media alike since coming to Milwaukee.
Unfortunately, for as good as Marcum was during the first five months of the season, he has not contributed much to the success of the Brewers in the last month.
Considering that the postseason is predicated predominantly on how well your starting pitching fares, it's not unreasonable for Roenicke to re-think his Game 6 strategy in that regard.
Then again, if the Brewers pitching cannot hold the Cardinals bats in check, there may not even be a Game 6 to worry about.
Doug Russell has been covering Milwaukee and Wisconsin sports for over 20 years on radio, television, magazines, and now at OnMilwaukee.com.
Over the course of his career, the Edward R. Murrow Award winner and Emmy nominee has covered the Packers in Super Bowls XXXI, XXXII and XLV, traveled to Pasadena with the Badgers for Rose Bowls, been to the Final Four with Marquette, and saw first-hand the entire Brewers playoff runs in 2008 and 2011. Doug has also covered The Masters, several PGA Championships, MLB All-Star Games, and Kentucky Derbys; the Davis Cup, the U.S. Open, and the Sugar Bowl, along with NCAA football and basketball conference championships, and for that matter just about anything else that involves a field (or court, or rink) of play.
Doug was a sports reporter and host at WTMJ-AM radio from 1996-2000, before taking his radio skills to national syndication at Sporting News Radio from 2000-2007. From 2007-2011, he hosted his own morning radio sports show back here in Milwaukee, before returning to the national scene at Yahoo! Sports Radio last July. Doug's written work has also been featured in The Sporting News, Milwaukee Magazine, Inside Wisconsin Sports, and Brewers GameDay.
Doug and his wife, Erika, split their time between their residences in Pewaukee and Houston, TX.
