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In politics, everyone loves a horse race poll.
But in one recent poll, one of the leading horses isn't even in the race.
If you think it's difficult not to picture a Scott Walker-Tom Barrett general election for governor in 2010, a recent poll by the Wisconsin Public Research Institute (WPRI)/UW-Madison Department of Political Science makes it tougher -- at least for now.
The survey shows that Milwaukee County Executive Walker and Milwaukee Mayor Barrett already have substantial leads over their likely primary opponents. The poll shows Walker leading former U.S. Rep. Mark Neumann by 38 percent to 14 percent in a race for the Republican primary for governor.
In a Democratic primary Barrett -- who isn't even in the race yet as he decides whether or not to run -- leads Lt. Gov. Barbara Lawton 38 percent to 16 percent.
It's early, very early. No one has been running statewide ad campaigns that build name identification and support, and those who have already declared their candidacy are still in the fundraising and organization-building stage. In fact, 45 percent said they had never heard of Barrett or Lawton, and 43 percent said the same of Walker and Neumann.
That makes both races wide open race with just over a year to go. Yet it seems odd that politicians of such prominence, none of whom are exactly shrinking violets when it comes to media coverage, aren't better known.
"All four major figures, Republicans and Democrats, still have a lot to do to define themselves to the public," said George Lightbourn, president of WPRI. "It's early, but you would expect someone like Barbara Lawton, who has held statewide office for seven years now, and Tom Barrett or Mark Neumann or Scott Walker to have more identification among voters.
"They all have a long way to go."
So, what does it mean?
First, polls like this can often help -- or hurt -- candidates in fundraising during the early stages. Contributors want to back a winner. Second, it's important to point out that the poll sample was of 700 residents, not likely voters, so the survey may not necessarily reflect the outcome among those who will show up at the polls next year. On the other hand, it's hard to identify likely voters more than a year before the election.
Still, if the poll is anywhere near reflective of the results in primaries next September, and if Barrett and Walker wind up as opponents in November, we could elect the first governor from Milwaukee County since 1938.
In other poll results:
- 57 percent approve of President Obama's performance.
- 44 percent approve of outgoing Gov. Jim Doyle's performance.
- 65 percent believe the state's economy has gotten worse, while 40 percent say it will get better.
- Former Gov. Tommy Thompson got a 54 percent favorable rating.
- U.S. Sen. Russ Feingold got a 54 percent approval rating.
Lightbourn said the most troubling result of the poll showed that more than two-thirds of those who responded said that politicians in Madison do the right thing "only some of the time" or "never."
"That's a danger sign," Lightbourn said. "There does seem to be a lack of confidence in Madison."
The survey has a 3.8 percent margin of error and was directed by UW-Madison political science professor Ken Goldstein. More on the poll can be found at www.wpri.org.
Bill Zaferos began his journalism career in 1981 at the Oshkosh Northwestern, later becoming a political reporter at the Appleton Post-Crescent. He is a former winner of the American Political Science Association Congressional Fellowship for Journalists, working as a senior staff member to U.S. Sen. William Proxmire, D-Wis., and U.S. Rep. Norman Mineta, D-Cal. He later became an award-winning political reporter for the Wilmington (DE) News Journal, covering state and national politics and the Delaware Legislature.
Zaferos, was press secretary to acting Milwaukee mayor Marvin Pratt and has served as a senior communications adviser to the citys Department of City Development during the Norquist administration. He is a veteran of several statewide and local political campaigns, including those of City Attorney Grant F. Langley; Milwaukee Circuit Court Judge Jeff Conen; and Appeals Court Judge Patricia Curley among others.
Previously, Zaferos has written music reviews for OnMilwaukee.com.
Zaferos is a graduate of the University of Wisconsin-Madison and he received his masters degree from Marquette University.
