By the time Ryan Braun is finished with his baseball career, he may be the all-time leader in most of the offensive statistics in Milwaukee Brewers history.
Right now, the vast majority of those categories are topped by Hall of Famer Robin Yount, who leads in hits (3142), home runs (251), runs batted in (1406), and total bases (4730). Paul Molitor leads in stolen bases (412) and is right behind Yount in almost all of the other categories.
If he stays healthy, Braun will certainly surpass Yount in home runs and RBI's. Already, Braun has 159 home runs and 524 RBI in just one-quarter of the career at-bats Yount had. Yount's career base hits total seems daunting, but next season Braun will get his 1,000th hit as he enters his prime, with nine more years left on his contract. What is working against Braun is that he did not make his big league debut until he was 23, while Yount's rookie season came when he was five years younger.
But while Braun is the biggest superstar to call Milwaukee home in quite some time, shockingly enough, he has never been named the Brewers team most valuable player. That's okay, though. This year he should make up for that by winning the National League's MVP Award.
Among those that are hopeful for Milwaukee's All-Star leftfielder's candidacy, there is the school of thought that Prince Fielder will siphon away some of Braun's support. However, Fielder's offensive prowess should not be that high of an obstacle to overcome. Without question though, Fielder has been a huge part of the Brewers success this year, and compares quite favorably with Braun in most categories. A closer look:
Ryan Braun: .331 average, 31 home runs, 104 RBI, 103 runs, 31 stolen bases
Prince Fielder: .296 average, 34 home runs, 112 RBI, 89 runs, 0 stolen bases
Braun's run-producing numbers are quite similar to Fielder's, but he is still hitting 35 points higher and provides the Brewers with a legitimate base-stealing threat. Also, hitting with runners in scoring position (RISP), Braun is hitting .336 as compared to Fielder's .311. Situational hitting has been a perceived problem for the Brewers, but Braun and Fielder have done their part almost as well as any of the MVP candidates in the National League.
In terms of on-base plus slugging percentage, or OPS, a hitter's relative worth is measured by his ability to both get on base as well as to hit for power. This is a statistic that in baseball terms is relatively new, but favors hitters that both draw walks and hit for power. This season, Braun's OPS is measured at .984, while Fielders is 29 points lower at .955. For the record, anything above .900 is considered outstanding by baseball sabermetricians.
The point of that exercise is not to denigrate or minimize Fielder's contributions in any way. Without him the Brewers would not be on the verge of clinching the division. Milwaukee fans cringe at the mere thought of Fielder leaving, which is exactly what he is planning to do during the off-season. He is a bona fide superstar.
The point that I am trying to make, however, is that if there is a choice to make as to who is more valuable between Braun and Fielder, the choice is clearly Braun.
With that out of the way, it's time to now compare Braun to his competition around the rest of the National League:
Matt Kemp: CF, Los Angeles Dodgers
.320 average, 34 home runs, 113 RBI, 103 runs, 40 stolen bases, .327 RISP, .963 OPS
Comment: Statistically, Kemp is as similar as anyone in the league to Braun. Kemp's season has been nothing short of outstanding, but the Dodgers have been at or below the .500 mark all season long. However, voters have historically taken into consideration how valuable a player can be to a franchise that has not been in contention at any point of the season. Not to take away from Kemp's breakout year, but his team's failures will hold him back. Kemp does, however, have the advantage of playing in a much larger media market. If the Dodgers were in contention, I would say Kemp might have a leg up on Braun by looking at the numbers, but with the Dodgers 76-76, I would be surprised if he garners enough support from the baseball writers to beat Braun out. Surprised, but not shocked.
Justin Upton, RF, Arizona Diamondbacks
.294 average, 31 home runs, 87 RBI, 102 runs, 21 stolen bases, .250 RISP, .917 OPS
Comment: While Upton is hitting 37 points lower than Braun and has 17 fewer RBI, is far worse in situational hitting and OPS, he will garner votes based on two ancillary items: The Diamondbacks have been the surprise team of baseball and will win the NL-West; and Upton carried their offense the entire season. Arizona Catcher Miguel Montero is the Diamondbacks only other consistent run producer, but his 17 home runs and 82 RBI hardly qualify him as Upton's counterpart in the way that Fielder has been to Braun. No one in the Arizona lineup is hitting .300, so by and large; Upton has been the one hitter opposing pitchers can be careful with. While Upton's numbers pale in comparison when put next to Braun's or Kemp's, voters will look at his overall situation as Arizona's only true offensive star, as they should.
Joey Votto, 1B, Cincinnati Reds
.315 average, 28 home runs, 98 RBI, 98 runs, 8 stolen bases, .395 RISP, .963 OPS
Comment: Votto, the 2010 National League MVP had another outstanding individual season, and just brutalized Milwaukee pitching all year long (.362, 4 HR, 14 RBI in 58 at-bats vs. the Brewers). However, the same negative that can be said about Kemp goes for Votto. Last season, when the Reds won the division, Votto's numbers were only slightly better than this year. The difference is that he didn't lead the Reds to anywhere but a third-place finish and a sub .500 record. If you were to look at Votto's team situation to Kemp's, they are very similar. If you compare his statistics to Kemp's, there is no comparison whatsoever.
Albert Pujols, 1B, St. Louis Cardinals
.299 average, 36 home runs, 96 RBI, 97 runs, 7 stolen bases, .328 RISP, .918 OPS
Comment: Anytime you enter into the National League's MVP race, Pujols' name has to be discussed. Pujols, a three-time winner (and a three-time runner-up) has had what can be described as an off-year – but only by his standards. Pujols got off to a terrible start, hitting just .257 in April, which is 72 points below his career average. Since the All-Star break, Pujols vaulted the Cardinals right back into the Wild Card race by hitting 44 points higher than he did before the midsummer classic. Pujols also missed several weeks with a freak arm injury. He has had a solid surrounding cast in Matt Holliday and Lance Berkman, but there is never any dispute as to who drives the Cardinals engine. Pujols enters every season as a candidate for the award, but he won't win it this year.
I do not have an MVP ballot. I am hopeful that one day, the much-too-powerful Baseball Writers Association of America will allow other objective observers of the game to have a say in matters such as postseason awards and Hall of Fame votes. There are too many in the BBWAA that don't even attend games on a regular basis and yet still claim membership. It is absurd that Bill Windler and Mike Davis get to vote and Bob Uecker and Marty Brennaman don't. The fact that Adam McCalvy, a traveling beat writer, does not get to have the same say that Dennis Semrau has simply because Adam writes for a –gasp– website rather than a traditional newspaper is criminal.
For the record, I am not criticizing Dennis, Bill or Mike. Bill and Mike are both outstanding editors at the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel and Dennis has been a respected mainstay on the Madison sports beat for many years. However, their inclusion to baseball's most elitist voting body, when compared to the exclusion of those that are actually there in the clubhouse every day for 6-7 months, needs to be addressed. But I'll get off my soapbox. For now.
If I did have a ballot for National League MVP, it would read like this:
1. Ryan Braun
2. Justin Upton
3. Matt Kemp
4. Prince Fielder
5. Albert Pujols
6. Joey Votto
Ryan Braun has had his most complete season, and has led the Milwaukee Brewers back to the playoffs. His statistics are as good or better than everyone else in the National League. His steady bat and leadership has demonstrated that he is the very definition of Most Valuable Player.
Doug Russell has been covering Milwaukee and Wisconsin sports for over 20 years on radio, television, magazines, and now at OnMilwaukee.com.
Over the course of his career, the Edward R. Murrow Award winner and Emmy nominee has covered the Packers in Super Bowls XXXI, XXXII and XLV, traveled to Pasadena with the Badgers for Rose Bowls, been to the Final Four with Marquette, and saw first-hand the entire Brewers playoff runs in 2008 and 2011. Doug has also covered The Masters, several PGA Championships, MLB All-Star Games, and Kentucky Derbys; the Davis Cup, the U.S. Open, and the Sugar Bowl, along with NCAA football and basketball conference championships, and for that matter just about anything else that involves a field (or court, or rink) of play.
Doug was a sports reporter and host at WTMJ-AM radio from 1996-2000, before taking his radio skills to national syndication at Sporting News Radio from 2000-2007. From 2007-2011, he hosted his own morning radio sports show back here in Milwaukee, before returning to the national scene at Yahoo! Sports Radio last July. Doug's written work has also been featured in The Sporting News, Milwaukee Magazine, Inside Wisconsin Sports, and Brewers GameDay.
Doug and his wife, Erika, split their time between their residences in Pewaukee and Houston, TX.